The natural history of prostate cancer on MRI: lessons from an active surveillance cohort.

backgroundMultiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) is being used increasingly in the setting of active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer. We investigated changes in the mpMRI appearance of lesions on AS, to show the variability of volume measurements in visible lesions and assess change in lesion size according to grade.

methodsWe retrospectively retrieved 86 men on AS (NICE guidelines) with more than one mpMRI (the first before 2013). Two radiologists, in consensus, were blinded to patient demographics and date of scan. The scans were randomly reported to reduce any bias. For visible lesions, we measured volume by planimetry on the sequence best showing the most conspicuous (index) tumour and attributed a 5-point Likert score.

results43/86 men did not have a visible lesion on the initial mpMRI (≤2/5). Of these, 5/43 had developed a lesion scoring ≥3/5 at a median of 3.6 years of follow up. 40/86 had a lesion scoring ≥3/5 on two or more scans. There was a significant increase in volume over 3.6 years by a median of 10% (p < 0.01)-by a median of 6% for Gleason 3+3 and 18% for 3+4 (p = 0.058). Thirty-five men had a visible lesion on two scans separated by <2 years; of these, 21/35 showed a 78% median increase in tumour size between the two scans and 11/35 showed an apparent 25% median decrease in lesion size.

conclusionsA total of 17% of men with no visible lesion developed a visible lesion at a median follow up of 3.6 years. It is possible to show significant growth in patients with a visible lesion, but variability in volume measurements between scans means that it is difficult to reliably detect increases of this order. This variability may inform the design of mpMRI protocols in AS and the time between follow up scans.