ArticleCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2018
Development and validation of a cardiovascular disease risk-prediction model using population health surveys: the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT).
Article in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- A dual domain systematic review and meta-analysis of risk tool accuracy to predict cardiovascular morbidity in prehypertension and diabetic morbidity in prediabetes.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Pooled it
- Study of cardiovascular disease prediction model based on random forest in eastern China.Scientific reports · 2020Trial
- A next-generation prediction risk model for acute myocardial infarction: Derivation and validation in a multi-centre cohort.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2026Article
- A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population‑based risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: The Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Population Risk Tool (PregPoRT).Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Review
- Association of inflammatory risk based on the Glasgow Prognostic Score with long-term mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Development of a predictive model for loss of functional and cognitive abilities in long-term care home residents: a protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in Geriatric Patients Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Article
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- Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
- Study protocol for the development and validation of a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2024Article
- Comparison of Cardiovascular Health Profiles Across Population Surveys From 5 High- to Low-Income Countries.CJC open · 2024Article
- A case-control study on predicting population risk of suicide using health administrative data: a research protocol.BMJ open · 2023Article
- A Health Survey-Based Prediction Equation for Incident CKD.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2023Article
- Adherence to emerging plant-based dietary patterns and its association with cardiovascular disease risk in a nationally representative sample of Canadian adults.The American journal of clinical nutrition · 2022Article
- A Machine-Learning-Based Risk-Prediction Tool for HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections Acquisition over the Next 12 Months.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Machine learning algorithms for predicting undernutrition among under-five children in Ethiopia.Public health nutrition · 2022Article
- Developing and Validating Risk Scores for Predicting Major Cardiovascular Events Using Population Surveys Linked with Electronic Health Insurance Records.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Effect of Physical Activity on Cardiovascular Event Risk in a Population-Based Cohort of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Physical Activity and Cardiorespiratory Fitness: Vital Signs for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment.Current cardiology reports · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundRoutinely collected data from large population health surveys linked to chronic disease outcomes create an opportunity to develop more complex risk-prediction algorithms. We developed a predictive algorithm to estimate 5-year risk of incident cardiovascular disease in the community setting.
methodsWe derived the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT) using prospectively collected data from Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Surveys, representing 98% of the Ontario population (survey years 2001 to 2007; follow-up from 2001 to 2012) linked to hospital admission and vital statistics databases. Predictors included body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and multiple behavioural, demographic and general health risk factors. The primary outcome was the first major cardiovascular event resulting in hospital admission or death. Death from a noncardiovascular cause was considered a competing risk.
resultsWe included 104 219 respondents aged 20 to 105 years. There were 3709 cardiovascular events and 818 478 person-years follow-up in the combined derivation and validation cohorts (5-year cumulative incidence function, men: 0.026, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.025-0.028; women: 0.018, 95% 0.017-0.019). The final CVDPoRT algorithm contained 12 variables, was discriminating (men: C statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.81-0.83; women: 0.86, 95% CI 0.85-0.87) and was well-calibrated in the overall population (5-year observed cumulative incidence function v. predicted risk, men: 0.28%; women: 0.38%) and in nearly all predefined policy-relevant subgroups (206 of 208 groups).
interpretationThe CVDPoRT algorithm can accurately discriminate cardiovascular disease risk for a wide range of health profiles without the aid of clinical measures. Such algorithms hold potential to support precision medicine for individual or population uses.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.