ArticleTobacco control2019
Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030.
Article in Tobacco control, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers.
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Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed.
- Tobacco-Use Susceptibility and Ever-Use Categories in Relation to Depressive Symptoms Among Undergraduates at a Chinese University: A Cross-Sectional Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Precision Medicine in Treating Lung Cancer: A Narrative Review on Treatments Targeting Oncogenic Genetic Mutations.Cureus · 2026Review
- Long-term trends in disease burden of esophageal cancer in China and the forecast until 2050.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Preferences for tobacco control health education among Chinese university students: A discrete choice experiment embedded in a randomized controlled trial.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Trends and Projections of PMInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026Article
- Connecting for health: qualitative exploration of community nursing in social prescribing for social determinants of health.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Internet use, socioeconomic status, and smoking behaviors among Chinese men: A secondary longitudinal dataset analysis of the China Family Panel Study.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Comparative trends in pancreatic cancer burden and risk factors in the USA and China (1990-2021): insights from GBD analysis.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Smoking Prevalence in Urban and Rural Areas - China, 2024.China CDC weekly · 2025Article
- Global and China burden of hormone-related cancers and risk factors, 1990-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The global burden of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco from 1990 to 2021: a global burden of disease study 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Exposure to tobacco advertisements or promotions and smoking susceptibility among adolescents in China from 2013-14 to 2021: findings from the China National Youth Tobacco Survey.BMC public health · 2025Article
- An observational study on the association between smoking and relative poverty in China: Evidence from two waves of China Family Panel Studies.Tobacco induced diseases · 2025Article
- A political economy of the tobacco supply chain in an Eastern Mediterranean country: The case of Lebanon.PloS one · 2025Article
- Proportions and trends of global adolescent knowledge and attitudes toward tobacco smoking from 1999 to 2019.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Integrating tobacco control into China's health management: Strategies for healthier China.Chinese medical journal pulmonary and critical care medicine · 2024Article
- Inside ANEMIA of CKD: Projecting the Future Burden of Anemia of Chronic Kidney Disease and Benefits of Proactive Management: A Microsimulation Model of the Chinese Population.Advances in therapy · 2024Article
- Effect of the national integrated demonstration area for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases programme on behavioural risk factors in China: a synthetic difference-in-differences study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Risk of incident type 2 diabetes in male NAFLD and NAFLD-free smokers: a 7-year post-cessation study.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2024Article
- [Application of the cigarette purchase tasks in achieving China' s tobacco control goals].Beijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.
methodsFirst, a 'business as usual' scenario for China's cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.
findingsUnder the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (-3%~47%) compared with 2016.
conclusionSignificantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.