ArticleNature communications2018
Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis.
Article in Nature communications, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Article
- Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Clustering and spatial heterogeneity of bovine tuberculosis at the livestock/wildlife interface areas in Namwala District of Zambia.Veterinary world · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, and controlled.
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Registered trials
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