ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Rift Valley fever seroprevalence and associated factors in non-vaccinated livestock (cattle and small ruminants) in Arua, Lira and Apac districts, Uganda.BMC veterinary research · 2026Article
- Sensitivity analysis of factors influencing the ecology of mosquitoes involved in the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Seasonal variation in mosquito abundance and environmental predictors in semi-pastoral southern Kenya: implications for endemic Rift Valley fever.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Incidence rate of Rift Valley fever exposure in humans and livestock from a longitudinal study in Northern Kenya.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The Temperature-Associated Effects of Rift Valley Fever Virus Infections in Mosquitoes and Climate-Driven Epidemics: A Review.Viruses · 2025Review
- Identification of Potential Vectors and Detection of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Mosquitoes Collected Before and During the 2022 Outbreak in Rwanda.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Gaps and opportunities for data systems and economics to support priority setting for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Transmission Dynamics Within Its Endemic Range in Chiapas, Mexico.Viruses · 2024Article
- Article
- Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Ecological and subject-level drivers of interepidemic Rift Valley fever virus exposure in humans and livestock in Northern Kenya.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Entomological survey of the potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus and absence of detection of the virus genome from the vectors in various niches in the southern half of the Great Rift Valley of Ethiopia.Veterinary medicine and science · 2022Article
- Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Outbreaks of Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases Are Associated With Changes in Forest Cover and Oil Palm Expansion at Global Scale.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
- Ecosystem perspectives are needed to manage zoonotic risks in a changing climate.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2020Article
- Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018-2019 epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Review
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.
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