ArticleSexual health2018
The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.
Article in Sexual health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Computational methods applied to syphilis: where are we, and where are we going?Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- High syphilis incidence among PrEP-adherent men who have sex with men and transgender women in Peru.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
- Predicting the Risk of HIV Infection and Sexually Transmitted Diseases Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Cross-Sectional Study Using Multiple Machine Learning Approaches.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Incidence and Risk Factors for Early Syphilis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Australia, 2013-2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Latent classes of sexual risk and corresponding STI and HIV positivity among MSM attending centres for sexual health in the Netherlands.Sexually transmitted infections · 2020Article
- Venue-Based HIV-Testing: An Effective Screening Strategy for High-Risk Populations in Lima, Peru.AIDS and behavior · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Background Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis.
methodsData from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactivity if two prior titres were non-reactive. Generalised estimating equations were used to calculate rate ratios (RR) and develop a predictive model for 70% of the dataset, which was then validated in the remaining 30%. An online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis was also developed.
resultsAmong 361 participants, 22.0% were transgender women and 34.6% were HIV-infected at baseline. Syphilis incidence was 19.9 cases per 100-person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.3-24.3). HIV infection (RR 2.22; 95% CI 1.54-3.21) and history of syphilis infection (RR 2.23; 95% 1.62-3.64) were significantly associated with incident infection. The final predictive model for syphilis incidence in the next 3 months included HIV infection, history of syphilis, number of male sex partners and sex role for anal sex in the past 3 months, and had an area under the curve of 69%. The online syphilis risk calculator based on those results is available at: www.syphrisk.net.
conclusionsUsing data from a longitudinal cohort study among a population at high risk for syphilis infection in Peru, we developed a predictive model and online risk calculator for future syphilis infection. The predictive model for future syphilis developed in this study has a moderate predictive accuracy and may serve as the foundation for future studies.
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