Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30012792›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2018

Interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of generic market entry of antineoplastic products in China.

Xiaodong Guan, Ye Tian, Dennis Ross-Degnan, Chunxia Man, Luwen Shi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Xiaodong GuanDepartment of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Ye TianDepartment of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Dennis Ross-DegnanDepartment of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Chunxia ManDepartment of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Luwen ShiDepartment of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2683-6685

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe rapid growth of pharmaceutical costs is a major healthcare issue all over the world. The high prices of new drugs, especially those for cancer, are also a concern for stakeholders. Generic drugs are a major price-reducing opportunity and provide more societal value. The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of generic entry on the volume and cost of antineoplastic agents in China.

methodsAn interrupted time-series design examined monthly sales of three antineoplastic drugs (capecitabine, decitabine, imatinib) from 699 public hospitals during January 2011 to June 2016. The first generic entry times (December 2013, December 2012, August 2013, respectively) were regarded as the intervention time points. We estimated changes in volume and cost following the generic entry.

resultsWe found that generic entry was associated with increases in the volume of three antineoplastic agents and decreases in their costs. In terms of volume, generic entry was associated with increases in use of capecitabine, decitabine and imatinib by 815.0 (95% CI -66.5 to 1696.5, p>0.05), 11.0 (95% CI 3.7 to 18.3, p=0.004) and 2145.5 (95% CI 1784.1 to 2506.9, p<0.001) units. The entry of generic antineoplastic drugs reduced the monthly cost trend of three agents by ¥3.1 (95% CI -¥3.6 to -¥2.6, p<0.001), ¥84.7 (95% CI -¥104.7 to -¥64.6, p<0.001) and ¥21.3 (95% CI -¥24.2 to -¥18.4, p<0.001), respectively. The entry of generic drugs attenuated the upward trend in volume of three brand-name drugs and even triggered reductions in the volume of brand-name capecitabine. The entry of generics was accompanied by significant increase of ¥2.6 in monthly brand-name decitabine cost (95% CI ¥0.2 to ¥5.1, p=0.04).

conclusionOur findings suggested that entry of generic drugs impacted use and cost of antineoplastic medicines in China. Generic drugs may improve the availability and the affordability of antineoplastic agents, which would benefit more patients.

Indexed as

Interrupted Time Series AnalysisAntineoplastic AgentsChinaCosts and Cost AnalysisDrug CostsDrug IndustryDrugs, GenericEconomic CompetitionHumansAntineoplastic AgentsDrugs, Generichealth policypublic health

Identifiers

PMID30012792
PMCPMC6082476

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.