ArticleEpidemiology and infection2018
Dynamic transmission modelling to address infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule modifications in the UK.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Review
- Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Article
- PCV20 in pediatric pneumococcal prevention: expanded coverage, remaining challenges.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- A dynamic transmission model for assessing the impact of pneumococcal vaccination in the United States.PloS one · 2025Article
- Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Switching to Higher-Valency Pediatric Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United Kingdom.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Epidemiology of non-vaccine serotypes ofHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Review
- The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Impact on Serotype 3: A Review of Surveillance Data.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2021Article
- Estimated impact of revising the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule from 2+1 to 1+1 in England and Wales: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2019Article
- Comment on Gomez et. al. "Response to article by Wasserman et. al. (2018) 'Modelling the sustained use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to switching to the 10-valent vaccine in Mexico'".Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2019Article
- Response to McGirr et al.'s Comment on "Clinical and Economic Impact of a Potential Switch from 13-Valent to 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Infant Vaccination in Canada".Infectious diseases and therapy · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been part of routine immunisation in a 2 + 1 schedule (two primary infant doses and one booster during the second year of life) in the UK since 2010. Recently, the UK's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommended changing to a 1 + 1 schedule while conceding that this will increase disease burden; however, uncertainty remains on how much pneumococcal burden - including invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and non-invasive disease - will increase. We built a dynamic transmission model to investigate this question. The model predicted that a 1 + 1 schedule would incur 8777-27 807 additional cases of disease and 241-743 more deaths over 5 years. Serotype 19A caused 55-71% of incremental IPD cases. Scenario analyses showed that booster dose adherence, effectiveness against carriage and waning in a 1 + 1 schedule had the most influence on resurgence of disease. Based on the model assumptions, switching to a 1 + 1 schedule will substantially increase disease burden. The results likely are conservative since they are based on relatively low vaccine-type pneumococcal transmission, a paradigm that has been called into question by data demonstrating an increase of IPD due to several vaccine serotypes during the last surveillance year available.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.