Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30010793›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2018

Does selective survival before study enrolment attenuate estimated effects of education on rate of cognitive decline in older adults? A simulation approach for quantifying survival bias in life course epidemiology.

Elizabeth Rose Mayeda, Teresa J Filshtein, Yorghos Tripodis, M Maria Glymour, Alden L Gross

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed.

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  14. Lead exposure across the life course and age at death.The Science of the total environment · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Elizabeth Rose MayedaDepartment of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Teresa J FilshteinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Yorghos TripodisDepartment of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
M Maria GlymourDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Alden L GrossDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Funding

UC Davis Alzheimer's Disease Core CenterP30AG010129 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS · PI DECARLI, CHARLES · 1991 to 2020
$28.3M
The Discovering Healthcare Innovations to Address Disparties in Stroke (DIADS) prU54NS081760 · NINDS · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI BIBBINS-DOMINGO, KIRSTEN, SIDNEY, STEPHEN · 2012 to 2016
$10.5M
Psychometric Integrative Technology for Cognitive Health ResearchR01AG051170 · NIA · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI JONES, RICHARD N · 2015 to 2019
$3.4M
Intersection of Physiologic Frailty and Cognitive Performance in Older Adults: An Integrative Data AnalysisK01AG050699 · NIA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GROSS, ALDEN L. · 2016 to 2020
$648k
Conference on Advanced Psychometric Methods in Cognitive Aging ResearchR13AG030995 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI MUNGAS, DAN M. · 2008 to 2022
$620k
Racial Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: The Role of Blood Pressure Throughout AdulthoodK99AG053410 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MAYEDA, ELIZABETH ROSE · 2016 to 2017
$253k
NIA NIH HHS K01 AG050699NIA NIH HHS K99 AG053410NIA NIH HHS P30 AG010129NIA NIH HHS R01 AG051170NIA NIH HHS R13 AG030995NINDS NIH HHS U54 NS081760
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The relationship between education and late-life cognitive decline is controversial. Selective survival between early life, when education is typically completed, and late life, when cognitive ageing studies take place, could attenuate effect estimates. Methods: We quantified potential survival bias (collider-stratification bias) in estimation of the effect of education on late-life cognitive decline by simulating hypothetical cohorts of 20-year-olds and applying cumulative mortality from US life tables. For each of four causal scenarios (2000 replications each), we compared the estimated versus causal effect of education on cognitive decline over 9 years, starting at age 60, 75 or 90 in random samples of n = 2000 people who survived to each age. Results: Effects of education on cognitive decline were underestimated when both education and U, another determinant of cognitive decline, influenced mortality (collider-stratification bias). The magnitude of bias was sensitive to the magnitude of the effect of U on cognitive decline and whether there was a multiplicative interaction between education and U on mortality. For example, when there was a multiplicative interaction between education and U on mortality, 95% confidence interval coverage of the causal effect ranged from 83.4% to 50.4% at age 60 and 25.8% to 0.2% at age 90. Conclusions: Selective survival could lead to underestimation of effects of education on late-life cognitive decline. Our simulations map survival bias to testable assumptions about underlying causal structures.

Indexed as

BiasCognitive AgingEducational StatusAgedAged, 80 and overCognitive DysfunctionComputer SimulationHumansLinear ModelsMiddle AgedMortalitySelection BiasSurvival AnalysisUnited States

Identifiers

PMID30010793
PMCPMC6208270

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.