Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29994920›Full record

ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2018

Simulation Modeling and Metamodeling to Inform National and International HIV Policies for Children and Adolescents.

Andrea Ciaranello, Annette H Sohn, Intira Jeannie Collins, Claire Rothery, Elaine J Abrams, Beth Woods, Pamela Pei, Martina Penazzato, Mary Mahy

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. When Is Mass Prophylaxis Cost-Effective for Epidemic Control? A Comparison of Decision Approaches.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  4. Metamodeling for Policy Simulations with Multivariate Outcomes.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. The opioid crisis: need for systems science research.Health research policy and systems · 2020
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Ensuring Children and Adolescents Are Not Left Behind.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2018
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Andrea CiaranelloDepartment of Medicine, Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA.
Annette H SohnTREAT Asia/amfAR-The Foundation for AIDS Research, Bangkok, Thailand.
Intira Jeannie CollinsMedical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.
Claire RotheryCentre for Health Economics, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
Elaine J AbramsICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY.
Beth WoodsCentre for Health Economics, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
Pamela PeiDepartment of Medicine, Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA.
Martina PenazzatoHIV and Hepatitis Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Mary MahyStrategic Information and Evaluation Department, UNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland.

Funding

Innovation across the spectrum of pediatric HIV care: Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of long-acting antiretroviral therapy for breastfeeding people with HIV and their infants in ZimbabweR01HD079214 · NICHD · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI CIARANELLO, ANDREA LYNNE · 2014 to 2023
$8.0M
Novel Methods to Inform HIV/TB Clinical Trial DevelopmentR01AI093269 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI REDDY, KRISHNA P · 2011 to 2024
$6.8M
Novel Methods to Inform HIV/TB Clinical Trial DevelopmentR37AI093269 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI WALENSKY, ROCHELLE P. · 2015 to 2019
$3.8M
Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/17Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/26NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI093269NIAID NIH HHS R37 AI093269NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD079214World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objective and approachComputer-based simulation models serve an important purpose in informing HIV care for children and adolescents. We review current model-based approaches to informing pediatric and adolescent HIV estimates and guidelines.

findingsClinical disease simulation models and epidemiologic models are used to inform global and regional estimates of numbers of children and adolescents living with HIV and in need of antiretroviral therapy, to develop normative guidelines addressing strategies for diagnosis and treatment of HIV in children, and to forecast future need for pediatric and adolescent antiretroviral therapy formulations and commodities. To improve current model-generated estimates and policy recommendations, better country-level and regional-level data are needed about children living with HIV, as are improved data about survival and treatment outcomes for children with perinatal HIV infection as they age into adolescence and adulthood. In addition, novel metamodeling and value of information methods are being developed to improve the transparency of model methods and results, as well as to allow users to more easily tailor model-based analyses to their own settings.

conclusionsSubstantial progress has been made in using models to estimate the size of the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic, to inform the development of guidelines for children and adolescents affected by HIV, and to support targeted implementation of policy recommendations to maximize impact. Ongoing work will address key limitations and further improve these model-based projections.

Indexed as

International Health RegulationsAdolescentAnti-Retroviral AgentsChildChild, PreschoolComputer SimulationEpidemicsGlobal HealthHIVHIV InfectionsHumansImplementation ScienceInfantModels, TheoreticalPolicy MakingYoung AdultAnti-Retroviral Agents

Identifiers

PMID29994920
PMCPMC6042862

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.