ArticleAnnals of family medicine2018
Predicting Incident Multimorbidity.
Article in Annals of family medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04386135 (DESVELA Cohort. Analysis of the Role of Personal Skills as Determinants of Incidence of Morbidity, Lifestyles, Quality of Life, Use of Services and Mortality.), which is not on this map. Cited by 54 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
DESVELA Cohort. Analysis of the Role of Personal Skills as Determinants of Incidence of Morbidity, Lifestyles, Quality of Life, Use of Services and Mortality.
Who cites it
54 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Association between maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of health literacy interventions on anxious and depressive symptomatology in primary health care: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Household and area-level social determinants of multimorbidity: a systematic review.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2021Pooled it
- Association of Sustained Blood Pressure Control with Multimorbidity Progression Among Older Adults.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2020Trial
- Determinants of the onset and development of multimorbidity in different subpopulations of older Chinese adults: insights from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Measuring individual and community capacity factors in people with multimorbidity and exploring associations with health outcomes.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Analytical approaches to evaluate risk factors of multimorbidity: a systematic scoping review protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Association of inflammatory markers and multimorbidity in young adults: cross-sectional findings from the Pelotas (Brazil) birth cohort, 1993.Cadernos de saude publica · 2025Article
- Lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity related to chronic disease: a population-based cohort study.European journal of ageing · 2024Article
- Association of polydoctoring and mortality among persons over 85 years with multimorbidity: a prospective cohort study in Japan.BJGP open · 2024Article
- Latent class analysis of chronic disease co-occurrence, clustering and their determinants in India using Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) India Wave-2.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- A dynamic probabilistic model of the onset and interaction of cardio-metabolic comorbidities on an ageing adult population.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Socioeconomic determinants and self-rated health among hotel housekeepers in the Balearic Islands (Spain).Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Non-communicable diseases related multimorbidity, catastrophic health expenditure, and associated factors in Ernakulam district.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Use of health services and medication use, new comorbidities, and mortality in patients with chronic diseases who did not contract COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic: a retrospective study and comparison by sex.BMC health services research · 2023Observational
- Association Between the Healthy Lifestyle Index and Risk of Multimorbidity in the Women's Health Initiative.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2023Article
- Global and regional prevalence of multimorbidity in the adult population in community settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Article
- Cardiovascular Disease as a Consequence or a Cause of Cancer: Potential Role of Extracellular Vesicles.Biomolecules · 2023Review
- Role of personal aptitudes as determinants of incident morbidity, lifestyles, quality of life, use of health services, and mortality (DESVELA cohort): quantitative study protocol for a prospective cohort study in a hybrid analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Prevalence and factors associated with multimorbidity in adults in Brazil, according to sex: a population-based cross-sectional survey.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeMultimorbidity is associated with adverse outcomes, yet research on the determinants of its incidence is lacking. We investigated which sociodemographic, health, and individual lifestyle (eg, physical activity, smoking behavior, body mass index) characteristics predict new cases of multimorbidity.
methodsWe used data from 4,564 participants aged 50 years and older in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging that included a 10-year follow-up period. Discrete time-to-event (complementary log-log) models were constructed for exploring the associations of baseline characteristics with outcomes between 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 separately for participants with no initial conditions (n = 1,377) developing multimorbidity, any increase in conditions within 10 years regardless of initial conditions, and the impact of individual conditions on incident multimorbidity.
resultsThe risks of developing multimorbidity were positively associated with age, and they were greater for the least wealthy, for participants who were obese, and for those who reported the lowest levels of physical activity or an external locus of control (believing that life events are outside of one's control) for all groups regardless of baseline conditions (all linear trends <.05). No significant associations were observed for sex, educational attainment, or social detachment. For participants with any increase in conditions (n = 4,564), a history of smoking was the only additional predictor. For participants with a single baseline condition (n = 1,534), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and arrhythmia showed the strongest associations with subsequent multimorbidity.
conclusionsOur findings support the development and implementation of a strategy targeting the prevention of multimorbidity for susceptible groups. This approach should incorporate behavior change addressing lifestyle factors and target health-related locus of control.
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