ArticlePloS one2018
Improving the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation in small urban centers among men who have sex with men: An agent-based modelling study.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- A spatially dynamic agent-based model for assessing the effect of gentrification-induced migration and HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.Annals of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Integrating HIV prevention services into care settings for people with opioid use disorder (OUD): a study protocol for implementation strategy development and modeling.Implementation science communications · 2025Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemiological complexity: A scoping review of Agent-Based Models and their application.PloS one · 2024Article
- Population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal (Canada): a modelling study of surveillance and survey data.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
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- Network centrality for the identification of biomarkers in respondent-driven sampling datasets.PloS one · 2021Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of a Statewide Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Program for Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men.Rhode Island medical journal (2013) · 2019Article
- Potential Impact of Interventions to Enhance Retention in Care During Real-World HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Implementation.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2019Article
- A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
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- Potential drivers of HIV acquisition in African-American women related to mass incarceration: an agent-based modelling study.BMC public health · 2018Article
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Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesIdentifying prescribing strategies that improve the efficiency of PrEP should increase its impact at the population level. This study identifies PrEP allocation criteria that most effectively reduce 10-year HIV incidence by 25%, in accordance with the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy's goal for the proportionate reduction in new diagnoses.
methodsWe used a discrete-time stochastic agent-based model to simulate several PrEP engagement strategies. The model represented MSM aged 15-74 in Rhode Island and was calibrated to statewide prevalence from 2009-2014. We simulated HIV transmission in the absence of PrEP and compared the following PrEP engagement scenarios: 1) allocation to the current patient population; 2) random allocation; 3) allocation to MSM with greater than 5 sexual partners in one year; 4) allocation to MSM with greater than 10 sexual partners in one year. For each scenario and coverage level we estimated the number and proportion of infections averted and the person-years on PrEP per averted infection.
resultsIn 2014, HIV prevalence before PrEP implementation was between 4% and 5%. In the No PrEP scenario 826 new infections (95% simulation limits [SL]: 711, 955) occurred over 10 years, with an incidence rate of 3.51 per 1000 person-years (95% SL: 3.00, 4.08). Prevalence rose to 7.4% (95% SL: 6.7, 8.1). None of the PrEP scenarios reduced new HIV infections by 25% while covering less than 15% of the HIV-uninfected population. At 15% coverage, allocating PrEP to the current patient population, MSM with greater than 5 sexual partners in a year, and MSM with greater than 10 partners reduced new infections by at least 25%, requiring 161 (95% SL: 115, 289), 150 (95% SL: 107, 252), and 128 (95% SL: 100, 184) person-years on PrEP per averted infection, respectively.
conclusionsEngaging MSM with high numbers of sexual partners would improve the population-level impact and efficiency of PrEP in settings where PrEP coverage remains low. However, the sustained population-level PrEP coverage needed to reduce new infections by 25% is substantially higher than current levels of PrEP uptake.
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