ArticleBMJ open2018
Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling.
Article in BMJ open, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 227 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
227 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Evaluating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting postherpetic neuralgia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in neurology · 2025Pooled it
- Longitudinal Patient-Reported Outcome Trajectories in Long COVID: Findings From the STOP-PASC Clinical Trial.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Trial
- Trajectories of Angina After Initial Invasive vs Conservative Strategy for Chronic Coronary Disease.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2025Trial
- Machine learning-derived serum carbon dioxide trajectories in predicting prognosis of patients with acute aortic dissection.Medical gas research · 2027Article
- Are associations of childhood body mass index trajectories with early-onset coronary heart disease modified by parental history of cardiovascular disease?International journal of obesity (2005) · 2026Article
- Associations of Green Space and Air Pollution Mixture with Heterogeneous Biological Aging Patterns.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- Your brain doesn't look a day past 70! Cross-sectional associations with brain-predicted age in the cognitively-intact oldest-old.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Built Environment and Loneliness Trajectories Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2026Article
- Trajectories of Physical Function in Canadian Children With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis.Arthritis care & research · 2026Article
- Article
- Childhood BMI trajectories and hypertension in adulthood: a population-based cohort study.Journal of human hypertension · 2026Article
- Long-Term Trajectories of Multidimensional Outcomes in Psychosis Following Early Intervention During the Critical Period: The PEPP-Montreal 10+ Study Protocol.Early intervention in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Age-Related Trajectories of the Triglyceride-Glucose Index and All-Cause Mortality in Older Chinese Adults.Reviews in cardiovascular medicine · 2026Article
- Stress-hyperglycemia ratio, its longitudinal trajectories, and stress-metabolism synergy in predicting cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A nationwide prospective cohort study.The Journal of international medical research · 2026Observational
- One-year dynamics of clinical activity during biologics therapy in patients of ulcerative colitis.Crohn's & colitis 360 · 2026Article
- Associations between prenatal per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure and fetal growth measurements in utero and at birth in the LIFECODES cohort: 2006-2019.Environmental research · 2026Article
- Longitudinal evidence for the principle of allocation in Japanese university decathletes.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Is there a bidirectional relationship between the number of unhealthy lifestyle factors and depressive symptoms in adolescents? Evidence from a longitudinal study.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- A Comprehensive Instrumental Analysis Framework for Assessing the Dissolvability and Taste Properties of Plant Extract Instant Granules.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Preconception and early-pregnancy exposure to ambient air pollution and trajectories of depressive symptoms during pregnancy.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Article
167 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesLatent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) is a relatively new methodology in epidemiology to describe life-course exposures, which simplifies heterogeneous populations into homogeneous patterns or classes. However, for a given dataset, it is possible to derive scores of different models based on number of classes, model structure and trajectory property. Here, we rationalise a systematic framework to derive a 'core' favoured model.
methodsWe developed an eight-step framework: step 1: a scoping model; step 2: refining the number of classes; step 3: refining model structure (from fixed-effects through to a flexible random-effect specification); step 4: model adequacy assessment; step 5: graphical presentations; step 6: use of additional discrimination tools ('degree of separation'; Elsensohn's envelope of residual plots); step 7: clinical characterisation and plausibility; and step 8: sensitivity analysis. We illustrated these steps using data from the NIH-AARP cohort of repeated determinations of body mass index (BMI) at baseline (mean age: 62.5 years), and BMI derived by weight recall at ages 18, 35 and 50 years.
resultsFrom 288 993 participants, we derived a five-class model for each gender (men: 177 455; women: 111 538). From seven model structures, the favoured model was a proportional random quadratic structure (model F). Favourable properties were also noted for the unrestricted random quadratic structure (model G). However, class proportions varied considerably by model structure-concordance between models F and G were moderate (Cohen κ: men, 0.57; women, 0.65) but poor with other models. Model adequacy assessments, evaluations using discrimination tools, clinical plausibility and sensitivity analyses supported our model selection.
conclusionWe propose a framework to construct and select a 'core' LCTM, which will facilitate generalisability of results in future studies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.