ArticleDemography2018
Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records.
Article in Demography, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Older adults life expectancy in China: Bayesian mortality estimation and spatially heterogeneous determinants.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Accounting for uncertainty in conflict mortality estimation: an application to the Gaza War in 2023-2024.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Unpacking occupational and sex divides to understand the moderate progress in life expectancy in recent years (France, 2010's).International journal for equity in health · 2024Article
- Reliable event rates for disease mapping.Journal of official statistics · 2024Article
- Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Cause-Specific Mortality and Racial Differentials in Life Expectancy, Chicago 2018-2019.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2024Article
- Flexible parametric methods for calculating life expectancy in small populations.Population health metrics · 2023Article
- Estimating the real burden of gestational syphilis in Brazil, 2007-2018: a Bayesian modeling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Spatial Inequities in Life Expectancy in Small Areas of Buenos Aires, Argentina 2015-2017.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2023Article
- The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020-2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Article
- Mortality inequalities measured by socioeconomic indicators in Brazil: a scoping review.Revista de saude publica · 2022Article
- Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010.Revista de saude publica · 2022Article
- The equigenic effect of greenness on the association between education with life expectancy and mortality in 28 large Latin American cities.Health & place · 2021Article
- Estimating underreporting of leprosy in Brazil using a Bayesian approach.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Generating age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration data: two applications of the empirical completeness method.Population health metrics · 2021Article
- Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Reduction of mortality and predictions for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure in Brazil until 2030.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Comparative analysis of completeness of death registration, adult mortality and life expectancy at birth in Brazil at the subnational level.Population health metrics · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
High sampling variability complicates estimation of demographic rates in small areas. In addition, many countries have imperfect vital registration systems, with coverage quality that varies significantly between regions. We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage derived from demographic estimation techniques, such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for underregistration and automatically producing measures of uncertainty. Bayesian estimates show that when mortality levels in small areas are compared, noise often dominates signal. Differences in local point estimates of life expectancy are often small relative to uncertainty, even for relatively large areas in a populous country like Brazil.
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