Assessing Biological and Methodological Aspects of Brain Volume Loss in Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Before using brain volume loss (BVL) as a marker of therapeutic response in multiple sclerosis (MS), certain biological and methodological issues must be clarified. Objectives: To assess the dynamics of BVL as MS progresses and to evaluate the repeatability and exchangeability of BVL estimates with Jacobian Integration (JI) and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Brain (FMRIB) Software Library (FSL) (specifically, the Structural Image Evaluation, Using Normalisation, of Atrophy-Cross-Sectional [SIENA-X] tool or FMRIB's Integrated Registration and Segmentation Tool [FIRST]). Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort of patients who had either clinically isolated syndrome or MS was enrolled from February 2011 through October 2015. All underwent a series of annual magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Images from 2 cohorts of healthy volunteers were used to evaluate short-term repeatability of the MRI measurements (n = 34) and annual BVL (n = 20). Data analysis occurred from January to May 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: The goodness of fit of different models to the dynamics of BVL throughout the MS disease course was assessed. The short-term test-retest error was used as a measure of JI and FSL repeatability. The correlations (R2) of the changes quantified in the brain using JI and FSL, together with the accuracy of the annual BVL cutoffs to discriminate patients with MS from healthy volunteers, were used to measure compatibility of imaging methods. Results: A total of 140 patients with clinically isolated syndrome or MS were enrolled, including 95 women (67.9%); the group had a median (interquartile range) age of 40.7 (33.6-48.1) years. Patients underwent 4 MRI scans with a median (interquartile range) interscan period of 364 (351-379) days. The 34 healthy volunteers (of whom 18 [53%] were women; median [IQR] age, 33.5 [26.2-42.5] years) and 20 healthy volunteers (of whom 10 [50%] were women; median [IQR] age, 33.0 [28.7-39.2] years) underwent 2 MRI scans within a median (IQR) of 24.5 (0.0-74.5) days and 384.5 (366.3-407.8) days for the short-term and long-term MRI follow-up, respectively. The BVL rates were higher in the first 5 years after MS onset (R2 = 0.65 for whole-brain volume change and R2 = 0.52 for gray matter volume change) with a direct association with steroids (β = 0.280; P = .02) and an inverse association with age at MS onset, particularly in the first 5 years (β = 0.015; P = .047). The reproducibility of FSL (SIENA) and JI was similar for whole-brain volume loss, while JI gave more precise, less biased estimates for specific brain regions than FSL (SIENA-X and FIRST). The correlation between whole-brain volume loss using JI and FSL was high (R2 = 0.92), but the same correlations were poor for specific brain regions. The area under curve of the whole-brain volume change to discriminate between patients with MS and healthy volunteers was similar, although the thresholds and accuracy index were distinct for JI and FSL. Conclusions and Relevance: The proposed BVL threshold of less than 0.4% per year as a marker of therapeutic efficiency should be reconsidered because of the different dynamics of BVL as MS progresses and because of the limited reproducibility and variability of estimates using different imaging methods.