Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29970199›Full record

SynthesisEpidemiology and infection2018

Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis.

Y Ma, C R Horsburgh, L F White, H E Jenkins

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Bayesian phylodynamic inference of population dynamics with dormancy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Cost-effectiveness of TB diagnostic technologies in Ethiopia: a modelling study.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2024
    Article
  18. Patterns of TB transmission in the United States, 2011-2017.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2024
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Y MaDepartment of Biostatistics,Boston University School of Public Health,Boston,MA 02118,USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9569-3169
C R HorsburghDepartment of Epidemiology,Boston University School of Public Health and Department of Medicine,Boston University School of Medicine,Boston,MA 02118,USA.
L F WhiteDepartment of Biostatistics,Boston University School of Public Health,Boston,MA 02118,USA.
H E JenkinsDepartment of Biostatistics,Boston University School of Public Health,Boston,MA 02118,USA.

Funding

Translational ScienceP30AI042853 · NIAID · MIRIAM HOSPITAL · PI LARRY K BROWN · 1998 to 2026
$51.7M
Validation and Application of a Model for Human-like TB Latency in RabbitsU19AI111276 · NIAID · RBHS-NEW JERSEY MEDICAL SCHOOL · PI ALLAND, DAVID, DARTOIS, VERONIQUE · 2014 to 2020
$23.3M
Systems Biology CoreU19AI162598 · NIAID · RUTGERS BIOMEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SHERMAN, DAVID R · 2021 to 2025
$13.9M
Supplement to Methods to Estimate the Effect of Interventions on the Incidence and Transmission of TuberculosisR01GM122876 · NIGMS · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI WHITE, LAURA FORSBERG · 2017 to 2021
$1.9M
Understanding spatial heterogeneity of drug resistant tuberculosisK01AI102944 · NIAID · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI JENKINS, HELEN E. · 2013 to 2017
$627k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI102944NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI042853NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI111276NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI162598NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM122876
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global infectious cause of death. Understanding TB transmission is critical to creating policies and monitoring the disease with the end goal of TB elimination. To our knowledge, there has been no systematic review of key transmission parameters for TB. We carried out a systematic review of the published literature to identify studies estimating either of the two key TB transmission parameters: the serial interval (SI) and the reproductive number. We identified five publications that estimated the SI and 56 publications that estimated the reproductive number. The SI estimates from four studies were: 0.57, 1.42, 1.44 and 1.65 years; the fifth paper presented age-specific estimates ranging from 20 to 30 years (for infants <1 year old) to <5 years (for adults). The reproductive number estimates ranged from 0.24 in the Netherlands (during 1933-2007) to 4.3 in China in 2012. We found a limited number of publications and many high TB burden settings were not represented. Certain features of TB dynamics, such as slow transmission, complicated parameter estimation, require novel methods. Additional efforts to estimate these parameters for TB are needed so that we can monitor and evaluate interventions designed to achieve TB elimination.

Indexed as

Disease Transmission, InfectiousAge FactorsChinaHumansNetherlandsPopulation DynamicsTuberculosisReproductive numberserial intervalsystematic reviewtuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID29970199
PMCPMC6092233

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.