ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2018
The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 85 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
85 citing papers in PubMed.
- A demographic perspective on longevity and healthspan: Rethinking population ageing through a positive and prospective lens.Journal of internal medicine · 2026Article
- Slowing disease accumulation but persistent complexity: population-level multimorbidity dynamics in old age.Age and ageing · 2026Article
- Global evidence for bounded human lifespan growth.Biogerontology · 2026Article
- Article
- AEGIS: Individual-based modeling of life history evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Gerontology lost in translation from demography to biology of aging and back.Biogerontology · 2026Review
- The Strehler-Mildvan mortality correlation arises from changes in the variability of ageing.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Healthspan-lifespan gap differs in magnitude and disease contribution across world regions.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Biomarkers of aging: from molecules and surrogates to physiology and function.Physiological reviews · 2025Review
- Beyond hallmarks of aging - biological age and emergence of aging networks.Aging pathobiology and therapeutics · 2025Article
- Modelling the age distribution of longevity leaders.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- An underappreciated peculiarity of late-life human mortality kinetics assessed through the lens of a generalization of the Gompertz-Makeham law.Biogerontology · 2024Article
- Health and wellbeing status of the long-lived individuals of the Spanish LONGECYL cross-sectional study.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2024Article
- Ageing as a two-phase process: theoretical framework.Frontiers in aging · 2024Article
- Elemental biomapping of human tissues suggests toxic metals such as mercury play a role in the pathogenesis of cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
- The African killifish: A short-lived vertebrate model to study the biology of sarcopenia and longevity.Aging cell · 2024Article
- New cases of dementia are rising in elderly populations in Wales, UK.Journal of the neurological sciences · 2023Article
- Rapamycin supplementation ofRoyal Society open science · 2023Article
- Biological Restraints on Indefinite Survival.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2023Review
- Article
25 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896-1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.