ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2018
Estimating the distance to an epidemic threshold.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Transient indicators of tipping points in infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Spatial early warning signals of social and epidemiological tipping points in a coupled behaviour-disease network.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- The Timing and Nature of Behavioural Responses Affect the Course of an Epidemic.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- The statistics of epidemic transitions.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Eigenvalues of the covariance matrix as early warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems.Scientific reports · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-recovered model is a boundary separating parameters that permit epidemics from those that do not. This threshold corresponds to parameters where the system's equilibrium becomes unstable. Consequently, we use the average rate at which deviations from the equilibrium shrink to define a distance to this threshold. However, the vital dynamics of the host population may occur slowly even when transmission is far from threshold levels. Here, we show analytically how such slow dynamics can prevent estimation of the distance to the threshold from fluctuations in the susceptible population. Although these results are exact only in the limit of long-term observation of a large system, simulations show that they still provide useful insight into systems with a range of population sizes, environmental noise and observation schemes. Having established some guidelines about when estimates are accurate, we then illustrate how multiple distance estimates can be used to estimate the rate of approach to the threshold. The estimation approach is general and may be applicable to zoonotic pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) as well as vaccine-preventable diseases like measles.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.