Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29949071›Full record

ArticleBehavior research methods2018

On the importance of avoiding shortcuts in applying cognitive models to hierarchical data.

Udo Boehm, Maarten Marsman, Dora Matzke, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Behavior research methods, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed.

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  10. Troubleshooting Bayesian cognitive models.Psychological methods · 2025
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  14. Meta-learning of human motor adaptation via the dorsal premotor cortex.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Udo BoehmDepartment of Experimental Psychology, University of Groningen, 9712 TS, Groningen, The Netherlands. u.bohm@rug.nl.
Maarten MarsmanDepartment of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, 1018 XA, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Dora MatzkeDepartment of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, 1018 XA, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Eric-Jan WagenmakersDepartment of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, 1018 XA, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Psychological experiments often yield data that are hierarchically structured. A number of popular shortcut strategies in cognitive modeling do not properly accommodate this structure and can result in biased conclusions. To gauge the severity of these biases, we conducted a simulation study for a two-group experiment. We first considered a modeling strategy that ignores the hierarchical data structure. In line with theoretical results, our simulations showed that Bayesian and frequentist methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the null hypothesis. Secondly, we considered a modeling strategy that takes a two-step approach by first obtaining participant-level estimates from a hierarchical cognitive model and subsequently using these estimates in a follow-up statistical test. Methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the alternative hypothesis. Only hierarchical models of the multilevel data lead to correct conclusions. Our results are particularly relevant for the use of hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimates in cognitive modeling.

Indexed as

CognitionData Interpretation, StatisticalModels, PsychologicalModels, StatisticalBayes TheoremBiasHumansBayes factorCognitive modelsHierarchical Bayesian modelStatistical errorsStatistical test

Identifiers

PMID29949071
PMCPMC6096647

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.