ArticlePloS one2018
Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Mosaic vaccination: How distributing different vaccines across a population could improve epidemic control.Evolution letters · 2021Article
- Interplay between cost and effectiveness in influenza vaccine uptake: a vaccination game approach.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2019Article
- A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
For most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variation. Our models predict that the total number of seasonal influenza infections is minimized at an intermediate (rather than maximal) level of vaccination, and, somewhat counter-intuitively, further increasing the level of the vaccination coverage may lead to higher number of influenza infections and be detrimental to the public interest. This arises due to the combined effects of: competition between multiple co-circulating strains; limited breadth of protection afforded by the vaccine; and short-term strain-transcending immunity following natural infection. The study highlights the need for better quantification of the components of vaccine efficacy and longevity of strain-transcending cross-immunity in order to generate nuanced recommendations for influenza vaccine coverage levels.
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Registered trials
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