Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29941567›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018

Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology.

Lauren A White, James D Forester, Meggan E Craft

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Wild canids and felids differ in their reliance on reused travel routeways.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  18. Accounting for animal movement improves vaccination strategies against wildlife disease in heterogeneous landscapes.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Lauren A WhiteDepartment of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; whit1951@umn.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-3852-5374
James D ForesterDepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108.ORCID 0000-0002-5392-9556
Meggan E CraftVeterinary Population Medicine Department, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108.ORCID 0000-0001-5333-8513

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host-pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.

Indexed as

Animal MigrationDisease OutbreaksDisease Transmission, InfectiousHost-Pathogen InteractionsModels, BiologicalAnimalsCommunicable DiseasesHumansdisease modellandscape fragmentationperceptual rangeresource selection functionspatial heterogeneity

Identifiers

PMID29941567
PMCPMC6048514

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.