Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29921676›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2018

Is prevalence of e-cigarette and nicotine replacement therapy use among smokers associated with average cigarette consumption in England? A time-series analysis.

Emma Beard, Jamie Brown, Susan Michie, Robert West

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Electronic Cigarettes: A Pro-Con Review of the Current Literature.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice · 2022
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Trends in Attempts to Quit Smoking in England Since 2007: A Time Series Analysis of a Range of Population-Level Influences.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2020
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. E-Cigarettes are More Addictive than Traditional Cigarettes-A Study in Highly Educated Young People.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. In Reply.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2018
    Article
  17. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Emma BeardCancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
Jamie BrownCancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
Susan MichieResearch Department of Educational, Clinical and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK.
Robert WestCancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 22962Cancer Research UK C1417/A14135Cancer Research UK C36048/A11654Cancer Research UK C44576/A19501Department of Health SPHR-SWP-ALC-WP5Medical Research Council MR/K023195/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesMany smokers use e-cigarettes and licensed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), often in an attempt to reduce their cigarette consumption. We estimated how far changes in prevalence of e-cigarette and NRT use while smoking were accompanied by changes in cigarette consumption at the population level.

designRepeated representative cross-sectional population surveys of adults aged 16+ years in England.

methodsWe used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling of monthly data between 2006 and 2016 from the Smoking Toolkit Study. Prevalence of e-cigarette use and NRT use in current smokers, and specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, were input variables. Mean daily cigarette consumption was the dependent variable. Analyses involved adjustment for mass media expenditure and tobacco-control policies.

resultsNo statistically significant associations were found between changes in use of e-cigarettes (β -0.012, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.002) or NRT (β 0.015, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.055) while smoking and daily cigarette consumption. Neither did we find clear evidence for an association between e-cigarette use (β -0.010, 95% CI -0.025 to 0.005 and β 0.011, 95%-0.027 to 0.004) or NRT use (β 0.006, 95%-0.030 to 0.043 and β 0.022, 95%-0.020 to 0.063) specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, respectively, and changes in daily cigarette consumption.

conclusionIf use of e-cigarettes and licensed NRT while smoking acted to reduce cigarette consumption in England between 2006 and 2016, the effect was likely very small at a population level.

Indexed as

AdultBayes TheoremCigarette SmokingCross-Sectional StudiesElectronic Nicotine Delivery SystemsEnglandFemaleHarm ReductionHumansMalePrevalenceSmoking CessationSurveys and QuestionnairesTobacco Use Cessation DevicesVapingarimaxe-cigarettenrtsmokingtime series

Identifiers

PMID29921676
PMCPMC6020958

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.