ArticleEnvironmental health and preventive medicine2018
Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis.
Article in Environmental health and preventive medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- Distribution and epidemiology of brucellosis in China.Veterinary research communications · 2026Review
- Spatiotemporal Early Warning of Human Brucellosis in Hubei Province Using Coupled Ecological-Time Series Models.Zoonoses and public health · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national trends in spinal fracture burden from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.Archives of medical science : AMS · 2026Article
- Comparison of SES method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in the department of neurology.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004-2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Risk effects of environmental factors on human brucellosis in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, 2014-2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- An analysis of the global, regional, and national epidemiology and trends of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias linked to smoking from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.Tobacco induced diseases · 2025Article
- Risk effects of meteorological factors on human brucellosis in Jilin province, China, 2005-2019.Heliyon · 2024Article
- MultipleFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024Article
- Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Research of Combined ES-BP Model in Predicting Syphilis Incidence 1982-2020 in Mainland China.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Development and comparison of predictive models for sexually transmitted diseases-AIDS, gonorrhea, and syphilis in China, 2011-2021.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Predictive study of tuberculosis incidence by time series method and Elman neural network in Kashgar, China.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Prevalence, distribution and risk factors for brucellosis infection in goat farms in Ningxiang, China.BMC veterinary research · 2021Article
- Safety and Transcriptome Analysis of Live AttenuatedFrontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
- Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Improved Early Detection of Focal Brucellosis Complications with Anti-Journal of clinical microbiology · 2020Article
- Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.
methodsSurveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R
resultsFrom April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R
conclusionsHuman brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.
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