Predicting in-hospital mortality in older general surgical patients.

Introduction A significant number of emergency general surgical admissions occur in older patients. Clinical decision making in this group is challenging and current risk prediction tools extrapolate data from cohorts of younger patients. This is the first UK study to examine risk factors predicting in-hospital mortality in older acute surgical patients undergoing comprehensive geriatric assessment. Methods This was a prospective study of consecutive patients aged ≥75 years admitted non-electively to general surgery wards between September 2014 and February 2017 who were reviewed by an elderly medicine in-reach service. Results A total of 577 patients were included with a mean age of 82.9 years. There was a female predominance (56%). The majority were living at home alone or with carers (93%) and most were independent in basic activities of daily living (79%). Over two-thirds (69%) were mobile with no walking aids or use of a walking stick and overt here-quarters (79%) had no cognitive impairment. Seventy-seven per cent of patients were managed non-operatively. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.9%. Female sex (p=0.031), dependence in activities of daily living (p<0.001), cognitive impairment (p<0.001) and incontinence (p<0.001) were predictors of in-hospital mortality. ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) grade ≥3 was also associated with increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 5.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.6-10.7). Conclusions Older general surgical patients present a high level of complexity. This study highlights the predictive role of mobility, functional and cognitive impairment when assessing this population. Accurate risk stratification requires global assessment by teams experienced in care of the older patient rather than the traditional focus on co-morbidities.