ArticleThe lancet. HIV2018
Potential effectiveness of long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men: a modelling study.
Article in The lancet. HIV, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
46 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Trial
- Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Trial
- Epidemiologic Impact of Prioritizing Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir to Men Who Have Sex With Men With Low Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use Adherence in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Family-Based Discrimination, Non-disclosure of Sexual Orientation or Gender identity, and Initiation of Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Adolescents.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of concurrently available oral and long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis for preventing HIV infections among men who have sex with men in eastern China: A modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Assessment of knowledge and use of HIV primary and secondary prevention strategies in Portugal: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Acceptability and Preferences of Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis and Antiretroviral Therapy Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and People Who Inject Drugs in India: Insights for Future Implementation.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Brief Report: Long-Acting Injectable PrEP Can Substantially Reduce HIV Incidence in Los Angeles County: A Simulation Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of leveraging long-acting injectable cabotegravir to expand PrEP coverage among MSM in two contrasting North American cities.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- A spatially dynamic agent-based model for assessing the effect of gentrification-induced migration and HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.Annals of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Perspectives of Primary Healthcare Workers on HIV Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP): A Scoping Review Protocol.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Willingness to Use Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Kampala, Uganda.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Exploring Willingness to Use Long-Acting Injectable PrEP Among Sexual and Gender Minoritized People Accessing Pharmacies.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2025Article
- Preference for Long-Acting Injectable PrEP Compared With Daily Oral PrEP Among Transgender Women in the U.S.: Findings From a Multisite Cohort.AJPM focus · 2025Article
- Integrating artificial intelligence with mechanistic epidemiological modeling: a scoping review of opportunities and challenges.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
- Reproductive health at crossroads: progress and challenges since the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo.China population and development studies · 2025Article
- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundOral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prevents HIV infection in men who have sex with men (MSM); however, adherence is an ongoing concern. Long-acting injectable PrEP is being tested in phase 3 trials and could address challenges associated with adherence. We examined the potential effectiveness of long-acting injectable PrEP compared with oral PrEP in MSM.
methodsWe used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of 11 245 MSM in Atlanta, GA, USA. We used raw data from studies in macaque models and pharmacokinetic data from safety trials to estimate the time-varying efficacy of long-acting injectable PrEP. The effect of long-acting injectable PrEP on the cumulative number of new HIV infections over 10 years (2015-24) was compared with no PrEP and daily oral PrEP across a range of coverage levels. Sensitivity analyses were done with varying maximum efficacy and drug half-life values.
findingsIn the absence of PrEP, the model predicted 2374 new HIV infections (95% simulation interval [SI] 2345-2412) between 2015 and 2024. The cumulative number of new HIV infections was reduced in all scenarios in which MSM received long-acting injectable PrEP compared with oral PrEP. At a coverage level of 35%, compared with no PrEP, long-acting injectable PrEP led to a 44% reduction in new HIV infections (1044 new infections averted [95% SI 1018-1077]) versus 33% (792 infections averted [763-821]) for oral PrEP. The relative benefit of long-acting injectable PrEP was sensitive to the assumed efficacy of injections received every 8 weeks, discontinuation rates, and terminal drug half-life.
interpretationLong-acting injectable PrEP has the potential to produce larger reductions in HIV transmission in MSM than oral PrEP. However, the real-world, population-level impact of this approach will depend on uptake of this prevention method and its effectiveness, as well as retention of patients in clinical care.
fundingNational Institute on Drug Abuse and National Institute of Mental Health.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.