Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29903012›Full record

ArticlePopulation health metrics2018

Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

Ji Lin, Theodore J Thompson, Yiling J Cheng, Xiaohui Zhuo, Ping Zhang, Edward Gregg, Deborah B Rolka

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Population health metrics, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 168 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
168citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02621476 nacompletednot on this map

Encouraging Mail Order Pharmacy Use to Improve Outcomes and Reduce Disparities

TypeinterventionalSponsorKaiser PermanenteRan2017 to 2022Enrolled63,012ConditionsDiabetes MellitusArmsStandardized intervention, Usual care
NCT05072587 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Dietary Oxysterols and β-Cell Function Among African Americans

TypeinterventionalSponsorMorehouse School of MedicineRan2021 to 2023Enrolled12ConditionsType 2 DiabetesArmsPlant-based diet with no oxysterols, Standard ADA Diet (SADA)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

168 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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108 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ji LinCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA.
Theodore J ThompsonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA.
Yiling J ChengCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA.
Xiaohui ZhuoMerck Research Laboratories, North Wales, USA.
Ping ZhangCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA.
Edward GreggCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA.
Deborah B RolkaCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, USA. dbr6@cdc.gov.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060.

methodsA dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985-2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000-2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection.

resultsThe projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases.

conclusionsBy 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.

Indexed as

EthnicityForecastingRacial GroupsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBlack or African AmericanDiabetes MellitusFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID29903012
PMCPMC6003101

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.