Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29902976›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2018

Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi.

Avery Kundrick, Zhuojie Huang, Spencer Carran, Matthew Kagoli, Rebecca Freeman Grais, Northan Hurtado, Matthew Ferrari

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Avery KundrickHershey Medical School, The Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA, USA.
Zhuojie HuangDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Spencer CarranDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Matthew KagoliMinistry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Rebecca Freeman GraisEpicentre, Paris, France.
Northan HurtadoMedecins Sans Frontieres, New York, NY, USA.
Matthew FerrariDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA. mferrari@psu.edu.

Funding

Forecasting tipping points in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseasesU01GM110744 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA · PI DRAKE, JOHN M, EPUREANU, BOGDAN · 2014 to 2018
$3.2M
Linking models and policy: Using active adaptive management for optimal control of disease outbreaksR01GM105247 · NIGMS · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE · PI FERRARI, MATTHEW · 2012 to 2016
$1.3M
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (US) OPP1094793National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases 1 R01 GM105247-01NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM105247NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM110744
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite progress towards increasing global vaccination coverage, measles continues to be one of the leading, preventable causes of death among children worldwide. Whether and how to target sub-national areas for vaccination campaigns continues to remain a question. We analyzed three metrics for prioritizing target areas: vaccination coverage, susceptible birth cohort, and the effective reproductive ratio (R

methodsUsing case-based surveillance data from the 2010 measles outbreak in Malawi, we estimated vaccination coverage from the proportion of cases reporting with a history of prior vaccination at the district and health facility catchment scale. Health facility catchments were defined as the set of locations closer to a given health facility than to any other. We combined these estimates with regional birth rates to estimate the size of the annual susceptible birth cohort. We also estimated the effective reproductive ratio, R

resultsThe estimated vaccination coverage across all districts was 84%, but ranged from 61 to 99%. We found that 8 districts and 354 health facility catchments had estimated vaccination coverage below 80%. Areas that had highest birth cohort size were frequently large urban centers that had high vaccination coverage. The estimated R

conclusionsEach metric for prioritization may result in discrete target areas for vaccination campaigns; thus, there are tradeoffs to choosing one metric over another. However, in some cases, certain areas may be prioritized by all three metrics. These areas should be treated with particular concern. Furthermore, the spatial scale at which each metric is calculated impacts the resulting prioritization and should also be considered when prioritizing areas for vaccination campaigns. These methods may be used to allocate effort for prophylactic campaigns or to prioritize response for outbreak response vaccination.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksChildHumansImmunization ProgramsMalawiMeaslesMeasles VaccineRetrospective StudiesRiskVaccination CoverageMeasles VaccineEquityMeaslesOutbreakVaccination

Identifiers

PMID29902976
PMCPMC6003196

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.