ArticleLiver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver2018
Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?
Article in Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prevalence of Hepatitis C in the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy: Population-Wide Screening.Viruses · 2025Article
- Long-Term Effects of Direct-Acting Antivirals on Hepatitis C: Trends in Liver Disease-Related Hospitalisations in Italy.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2025Article
- Screening strategy to advance HCV elimination in Italy: a cost-consequence analysis.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2024Article
- The Challenge of a Recall Program from a Community-Based Hepatitis C Screening Campaign: The Effectiveness in HCV Microelimination.Microorganisms · 2024Article
- Country-Wide HCV Elimination Strategies Need to Reach Older Patients in the General Population: The Italian Experience.Viruses · 2023Article
- Exploring Knowledge and Awareness of HCV Infection and Screening Test: A Cross-Sectional Survey Among an Italian Sample.Journal of community health · 2023Article
- Analysis of Patients' Characteristics and Treatment Profile of People Who Use Drugs (PWUDs) with and without a Co-Diagnosis of Viral Hepatitis C: A Real-World Retrospective Italian Analysis.Therapeutics and clinical risk management · 2023Article
- Hepatitis C virus burden: Treating and educating people without prejudice.World journal of hepatology · 2022Article
- Article
- Opportunistic co-screening for HCV and COVID-19-related services: A creative response with a need for thoughtful reflection.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2022Article
- Article
- A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Meet-Test-Treat for HCV management: patients' and clinicians' preferences in hospital and drug addiction services in Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Economic Consequences of Anti-HCV Treatment of Patients Diagnosed Through Screening in Italy: A Prospective Modelling Analysis.Applied health economics and health policy · 2022Article
- Optimizing diagnostic algorithms to advance Hepatitis C elimination in Italy: A cost effectiveness evaluation.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2022Article
- The Netherlands Is on Track to Meet the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Targets by 2030.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- Hepatitis C virus infection and risk of liver-related and non-liver-related deaths: a population-based cohort study in Naples, southern Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- High Rates of Hidden HCV Infections among Hospitalized Patients Aged 55-85.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Hepatitis C virus cascade of care in the general population, in people with diabetes, and in substance use disorder patients.Infectious agents and cancer · 2021Article
- [Exploring the health education model for chronic hepatitis C micro-elimination in Guizhou Province from a global perspectives].Zhonghua gan zang bing za zhi = Zhonghua ganzangbing zazhi = Chinese journal of hepatology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
42 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsAdvances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030.
methodsUsing a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals.
resultsUnder the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals.
conclusionIn Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.
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