Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29860289›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2018

Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.

Graham F Medley, David J Blok, Ronald E Crump, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Alison P Galvani, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Travis C Porco, Jan Hendrik Richardus

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Observational
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. A comprehensive research agenda for zero leprosy.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020
    Article
  8. Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Graham F MedleyDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.
David J BlokDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Ronald E CrumpZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry.
T Déirdre HollingsworthBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Alison P GalvaniCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
Martial L Ndeffo-MbahCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
Travis C PorcoFrancis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco.
Jan Hendrik RichardusDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Funding

Accelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9M
Evaluating the social influences that impact vaccination decisionsU01GM105627 · NIGMS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P · 2013 to 2017
$1.6M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM105627
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

Indexed as

Disease EradicationModels, StatisticalModels, TheoreticalHumansIncidenceLeprosyPolicy

Identifiers

PMID29860289
PMCPMC5982730

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.