ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2018
Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Incorporating vertical transmission into mechanistic modeling of West Nile virus for optimized control in Germany.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Determining dengue infection risk in the Colombo district of Sri Lanka by inferencing the genetic parameters of Aedes mosquitoes.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction numberHeliyon · 2023Article
- Discrete Models in Epidemiology: New Contagion Probability Functions Based on Real Data Behavior.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Quantifying geographic heterogeneity in TB incidence and the potential impact of geographically targeted interventions in South and North City Corporations of Dhaka, Bangladesh: a model-based study.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Assessing the suitability for Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in China with a delay differential equation model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Complexity and critical thresholds in the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis.Royal Society open science · 2020Article
- Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments.Scientific reports · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus.
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