Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29847496›Full record

ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2018

Trends in Black and White Opioid Mortality in the United States, 1979-2015.

Monica J Alexander, Mathew V Kiang, Magali Barbieri

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 99 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
99citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

99 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
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  11. Widening Racial Disparities in the U.S. Overdose Epidemic.American journal of preventive medicine · 2025
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Racial/ethnic inequality in homelessness and drug overdose deaths in US States.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. The Role of Despair in Predicting Self-Destructive Behaviors.Population research and policy review · 2025
    Article

39 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Monica J AlexanderFrom the Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.
Mathew V KiangDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Magali BarbieriInstitut national d'études démographiques, Paris, France.

Funding

Studies in Global MortalityR01AG011552 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI DOW, WILLIAM H. · 1993 to 2014
$5.1M
Workshops in Formal DemographyR25HD083136 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI JOSHUA R. GOLDSTEIN · 2015 to 2026
$1.7M
Variability of mortality levels and trends by state in the United StatesR01AG040245 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI DOW, WILLIAM H. · 2011 to 2016
$1.2M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG011552NIA NIH HHS R01 AG040245
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRecent research on the US opioid epidemic has focused on the white or total population and has largely been limited to data after 1999. However, understanding racial differences in long-term trends by opioid type may contribute to improving interventions.

methodsUsing multiple cause of death data, we calculated age-standardized opioid mortality rates, by race and opioid type, for the US resident population from 1979 to 2015. We analyzed trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression.

resultsFrom 1979 to 2015, the long-term trends in opioid-related mortality for Earlier data did not include ethnicity so this is incorrect. It is all black and all white residents in the US. blacks and whites went through three successive waves. In the first wave, from 1979 to the mid-1990s, the epidemic affected both populations and was driven by heroin. In the second wave, from the mid-1990s to 2010, the increase in opioid mortality was driven by natural/semi-synthetic opioids (e.g., codeine, morphine, hydrocodone, or oxycodone) among whites, while there was no increase in mortality for blacks. In the current wave, increases in opioid mortality for both populations have been driven by heroin and synthetic opioids (e.g., fentanyl and its analogues). Heroin rates are currently increasing at 31% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 27, 35) per year for whites and 34% (95% CI = 30, 40) for blacks. Concurrently, respective synthetic opioids are increasing at 79% (95% CI = 50, 112) and 107% (95% CI = -15, 404) annually.

conclusionSince 1979, the nature of the opioid epidemic has shifted from heroin to prescription opioids for the white population to increasing of heroin/synthetic deaths for both black and white populations. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B377.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsBlack or African AmericanCause of DeathChildChild, PreschoolHeroin DependenceHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMiddle AgedOpioid-Related DisordersUnited States

Identifiers

PMID29847496
PMCPMC6072374

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.