ArticleExperimental & applied acarology2018
Forecasting next season's Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018.
Article in Experimental & applied acarology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Diversity, Host Attachment Preferences and Role of Tick Rhipicephalus microplus in the Transmission of Bartonella spp. and Rickettsia spp. in Cattle From Southern Benin.Veterinary medicine and science · 2026Article
- Predictive temperature-dependency of tick questing activity in France and relevance to Lyme disease risk in Connecticut.Experimental & applied acarology · 2025Article
- Interrelation of the spatial and genetic structure of tick-borne encephalitis virus, its reservoir host (Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- The Role of Environmental Factors in Lyme Disease Transmission in the European Union: A Systematic Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Review
- Tick paralysis induced byFrontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021).Infection ecology & epidemiology · 2023Article
- Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and Climatological Conditions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents.Global change biology · 2022Article
- The evolving story of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato transmission in Europe.Parasitology research · 2022Review
- Maps of ticks (Acari: Argasidae, Ixodidae) for Austria and South Tyrol, Italy.Experimental & applied acarology · 2022Article
- Model-based extrapolation of ecological systems under future climate scenarios: The example of Ixodes ricinus ticks.PloS one · 2022Article
- Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of Ixodes ricinus ticks with different time lags.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- Masting by beech trees predicts the risk of Lyme disease.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- Article
- Disappearance of TBEV Circulation among Rodents in a Natural Focus in Alsace, Eastern France.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Climate and tree seed production predict the abundance of the European Lyme disease vector over a 15-year period.Parasites & vectors · 2020Article
- Long-term monitoring of the seasonal density of questing ixodid ticks in Vienna (Austria): setup and first results.Experimental & applied acarology · 2020Article
- Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus: Seasonal and Annual Variation of Epidemiological Parameters Related to Nymph-to-Larva Transmission and Exposure of Small Mammals.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are not random: explaining trend, low- and high-frequency oscillations based on the Austrian TBE time series.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick season. There are two necessary conditions for making a successful prediction: a long homogeneous time series of observed tick density and a clear biological relationship between environmental predictors and tick density. A 9-year time series covering the period 2009-2017 of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in southern Germany has been used. With the hypothesis that I. ricinus density is triggered by the fructification of the European beech 2 years before, the mean annual temperature of the previous year, and the current mean winter temperature (December-February), a forecast of the annual nymphal tick density has been made. Therefore, a Poisson regression model was generated resulting in an explained variance of 93.4% and an error of [Formula: see text] ticks per [Formula: see text] (annual [Formula: see text] collected ticks/[Formula: see text]). An independent verification of the forecast for the year 2017 resulted in 187 predicted versus 180 observed nymphs per [Formula: see text]. For the year 2018 a relatively high number of 443 questing I. ricinus nymphs per [Formula: see text] is forecasted, i.e., a "good" tick year.
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