ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue.Science advances · 2026Review
- Refining the suitable conditions index to predict dengue fever transmission in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Larvicidal, oviposition inhibition, electrophysiological, histological, and docking activity ofFrontiers in pharmacology · 2026Article
- Habitat Quality Assessment Within Expanded Ranges of Dengue Vectors Using a Composite Index Scale.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Modeling treatment and temperature effects on dengue transmission at the division level in Bangladesh.PloS one · 2026Article
- High-resolution climate-dengue modeling and mid-century projections under SSP5-8.5 in Costa Rica.Science in One Health · 2026Article
- Mosquito salivary sialokinin reduces monocyte activation and chikungunya virus-induced inflammation via neurokinin receptors.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Differential Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Vector-Borne Disease Transmission Across Urban and Rural Settings: A Scoping Review.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- A novel approach to quantify the optimal range and causal effect of rainfall on vector-borne diseases: a case study of dengue epidemics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Mosquito and global dengue cases in a warming world.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024Article
- The global incidence and trends of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
- Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau.iScience · 2023Article
- Global warming and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa: a narrative review.The Pan African medical journal · 2023Review
- The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Review
- Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China.Global change biology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.
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