Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29843824›Full record

ArticleEpidemiology and infection2018

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.

Eduardo Massad, Marcos Amaku, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Claudio José Struchiner, Luis Fernandez Lopez, Giovanini Coelho, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Effects of migration rates and vaccination on the spread of yellow fever in Latin American communities.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2023
    Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Yellow fever in Asia-a risk analysis.Journal of travel medicine · 2021
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Yellow fever control: current epidemiology and vaccination strategies.Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines · 2020
    Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Eduardo MassadSchool of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-7200-2916
Marcos AmakuSchool of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-4752-6774
Francisco Antonio Bezerra CoutinhoSchool of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.
Claudio José StruchinerSchool of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil.
Luis Fernandez LopezSchool of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-4097-6887
Giovanini CoelhoNeglected, Tropical and Vector-borne Diseases Program, CHA/VT. PAHO/WHO,Washington DC,USA.
Annelies Wilder-SmithLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London,UK.
Marcelo Nascimento BurattiniSchool of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo,Sao Paulo,Brazil.

Funding

CIHR 372512
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

Indexed as

AedesAmericasAnimalsCitiesCommunicable Diseases, ImportedDengueFemaleHumansIncidenceMosquito VectorsProbabilityRisk AssessmentTravelYellow FeverAedes aegyptidenguemathematical modelsriskyellow fever

Identifiers

PMID29843824
PMCPMC9134282

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.