ArticleThe Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale2018
The Role of Migration in Maintaining the Transmission of Avian Influenza in Waterfowl: A Multisite Multispecies Transmission Model along East Asian-Australian Flyway.
Article in The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Waterfowl Move Less in Heterogeneous and Human-Populated Landscapes, With Implications for Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses.Ecology letters · 2026Article
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- Location, Age, and Antibodies Predict Avian Influenza Virus Shedding in Ring-Billed and Franklin's Gulls in Minnesota.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Disease Emergence in Multi-Patch Stochastic Epidemic Models with Demographic and Seasonal Variability.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMigratory waterfowl annually migrate over the continents along the routes known as flyways, serving as carriers of avian influenza virus across distant locations. Prevalence of influenza varies with species, and there are also geographical and temporal variations. However, the role of long-distance migration in multispecies transmission dynamics has yet to be understood. We constructed a mathematical model to capture the global dynamics of avian influenza, identifying species and locations that contribute to sustaining transmission.
methodsWe devised a multisite, multispecies SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, and estimated transmission rates within and between species in each geographical location from prevalence data. Parameters were directly sampled from posterior distribution under Bayesian inference framework. We then analyzed contribution of each species in each location to the global patterns of influenza transmission.
resultsTransmission and migration parameters were estimated by Bayesian posterior sampling. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.1, slightly above the endemic threshold. Mallard was found to be the most important host with the highest transmission potential, and high- and middle-latitude regions appeared to act as hotspots of influenza transmission. The local reproduction number suggested that the prevalence of avian influenza in the Oceania region is dependent on the inflow of infected birds from other regions.
conclusionMallard exhibited the highest transmission rate among the species explored. Migration was suggested to be a key factor of the global prevalence of avian influenza, as transmission is locally sustainable only in the northern hemisphere, and the virus could be extinct in the Oceania region without migration.
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