ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2018
Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Japanese encephalitis: Current status, recent progress, and persistent challenges.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Review
- Associations of maternal PM2.5 exposure with preterm birth and miscarriage in women undergoingFrontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
- Scoping Review of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Transmission Models.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Revisiting the risk of introduction of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States - An updated semi-quantitative risk assessment.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Modelling Japanese encephalitis virus transmission dynamics and human exposure in a Cambodian rural multi-host system.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Inferring the Association between the Risk of COVID-19 Case Fatality and N501Y Substitution in SARS-CoV-2.Viruses · 2021Article
- Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion With a Simple Approach: Exemplified With the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Imitation dynamics in the mitigation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China from 2019 to 2020.Annals of translational medicine · 2020Article
- New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Article
- A simple approach to estimate the instantaneous case fatality ratio: Using the publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data in Canada as an example.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Review of Emerging Japanese Encephalitis Virus: New Aspects and Concepts about Entry into the Brain and Inter-Cellular Spreading.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus, persisting in pigs, Ardeid birds and Culex mosquitoes. It is endemic to China and Southeastern Asia. The case-fatality ratio (CFR) or the rate of permanent psychiatric sequelae is 30% among symptomatic patients. There were no reported local JEV human cases between 2006 and 2010 in Hong Kong, but it was followed by a resurgence of cases from 2011 to 2017. The mechanism behind this "skip-and-resurgence" patterns is unclear. This work aims to reveal the mechanism behind the "skip-and-resurgence" patterns using mathematical modelling and likelihood-based inference techniques. We found that pig-to-pig transmission increases the size of JEV epidemics but is unlikely to maintain the same level of transmission among pigs. The disappearance of JEV human cases in 2006-2010 could be explained by a sudden reduction of the population of farm pigs as a result of the implementation of the voluntary "pig-rearing licence surrendering" policy. The resurgence could be explained by of a new strain in 2011, which increased the transmissibility of the virus or the spill-over ratio from reservoir to host or both.
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