ArticleAIDS and behavior2018
Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China.
Article in AIDS and behavior, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for targeted testing of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Performance of HIV Infection Prediction Models in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Archives of sexual behavior · 2023Pooled it
- Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: a Systematic Review.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2022Pooled it
- Forecasting monthly AIDS incidence in China via LSTM-CNN parallel fusion: a comparative study of 10 predictive models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Calculator to Predict Sub-optimal HIV Outcomes Among Pregnant and Postpartum Women with HIV in Kenya.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Predicting the Risk of HIV Infection and Sexually Transmitted Diseases Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Cross-Sectional Study Using Multiple Machine Learning Approaches.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Article
- Prediction Model for the Risk of HIV Infection among MSM in China: Validation and Stability.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Application of machine learning algorithms in predicting HIV infection among men who have sex with men: Model development and validation.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Risk Management on Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Adherence of Men Who Have Sex with Multiple Men: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Article
- Latent classes of sexual risk and corresponding STI and HIV positivity among MSM attending centres for sexual health in the Netherlands.Sexually transmitted infections · 2020Article
- Association between Psychological Factors and Condom Use with Regular and Nonregular Male Sexual Partners among Chinese MSM: A Quantitative Study Based on the Health Belief Model.BioMed research international · 2020Article
- Sexual behaviors and seroprevalence of HIV, HBV, and HCV among hill tribe youths of Northern Thailand.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Article
- Development and Validation of a Personalized Social Media Platform-Based HIV Incidence Risk Assessment Tool for Men Who Have Sex With Men in China.Journal of medical Internet research · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full model) and 0.71 (reduced-form model). Non-Beijing residence, short-term living in Beijing, illegal drug use, multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal sex, inconsistent condom use, alcohol consumption before sex, and syphilis infection were the strongest predictors of HIV infection. Discriminating higher-risk MSM for targeted HIV prevention programming using a validated risk score could improve the efficiency of resource deployment for educational and risk reduction programs. A valid risk score can also identify higher risk persons into prevention and vaccine clinical trials, which would improve trial cost-efficiency.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.