Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29781740›Full record

ArticleHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics2018

Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam.

Olivier Le Polain De Waroux, W John Edmunds, Kensuke Takahashi, Koya Ariyoshi, E Kim Mulholland, David Goldblatt, Yoon Hong Choi, Dang Duc Anh, Lay Myint Yoshida, Stefan Flasche

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Colonization and Invasive Disease in Cambodian Children.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Olivier Le Polain De Warouxa Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
W John Edmundsa Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
Kensuke Takahashib Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-0160-3212
Koya Ariyoshib Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan.
E Kim Mulhollanda Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
David Goldblattd Institute of Child Health, University College London , London , UK.
Yoon Hong Choie Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department , Public Health England , London , UK.
Dang Duc Anhg National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology , Hanoi , Vietnam.
Lay Myint Yoshidab Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan.
Stefan Flaschea Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBNagasaki University · JPCharles Darwin University · AUNational Institute Of Hygiene And Epidemiology · VNPublic Health England · GBUniversity College London · GB

Funding

Wellcome Trust 208812
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam - a country that has not yet introduced PCV - through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 - 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 - 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 - 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAdolescentAdultCarrier StateChildChild, PreschoolHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMarkov ChainsMass VaccinationNasopharynxPneumococcal InfectionsPneumococcal VaccinesPrevalence13-valent pneumococcal vaccinePneumococcal VaccinesVaccines, ConjugateAsiacampaigncatch-uppneumococcusvaccineviet nam

Identifiers

PMID29781740
PMCPMC6149911
OpenAlexW2803484555

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.