Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29772688›Full record

ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2018

Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market.

Smilja Djurdjevic, Peter N Lee, Rolf Weitkunat, Zheng Sponsiello-Wang, Frank Lüdicke, Gizelle Baker

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Smilja DjurdjevicPhilip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland. Smilja.Djurdjevic@pmi.com.ORCID 0000-0001-8107-9782
Peter N LeeP. N. Lee Statistics and Computing Ltd., 17 Cedar Road, Sutton SM2 5DA, UK. PeterLee@pnlee.co.uk.
Rolf WeitkunatPhilip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland. Rolf.Weitkunat@pmi.com.
Zheng Sponsiello-WangPhilip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland. Zheng.Wang@pmi.com.
Frank LüdickePhilip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland. Frank.Luedicke@pmi.com.
Gizelle BakerPhilip Morris International R&D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, Neuchâtel 2000, Switzerland. Gizelle.Baker@pmi.com.ORCID 0000-0002-3747-2963

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP relative exposure. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.

Indexed as

harmhealthmodifiednicotinenon-combustiblepublicreducedrisksmokingtobacco

Identifiers

PMID29772688
PMCPMC6023310

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.