ArticleJournal of global health2018
Heterogeneity in geographical trends of HIV epidemics among key populations in Pakistan: a mathematical modeling study of survey data.
Article in Journal of global health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- HIV epidemiology among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Assessment of HIV Infection in HIV Patients Admitted to Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, Islamabad, Pakistan.AIDS research and treatment · 2025Article
- Including transgender populations in mathematical models for HIV treatment and prevention: current barriers and policy implications.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Risk factors of HIV and variation in access to clean needles among people who inject drugs in Pakistan.Pathogens and global health · 2023Article
- Inconsistent condom use for prevention of HIV/STIs among street-based transgender sex workers in Lahore, Pakistan: socio-ecological analysis based on a qualitative study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Sexual and gender minority health in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A scoping review.International journal of nursing studies advances · 2022Article
- Overlapping Key Populations and HIV Transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: A Modelling Analysis of Epidemic Drivers.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- Elucidating Drivers for Variations in the Explosive Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic Among People Who Inject Drugs in Pakistan.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Rising HIV seroconversion rates & associated risks among employees of organization 'X': A case control study, Pakistan, 2017.Pakistan journal of medical sciencesArticle
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAssessing patterns and trends in new infections is key to better understanding of HIV epidemics, and is best done through monitoring changes in incidence over time. In this study, we examined disparities in geographical trends of HIV epidemics among people who inject drugs (PWIDs), female sex workers (FSWs) and
methodsThe UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) mathematical model was used to explore geographical trends in HIV epidemics. Four rounds of mapping and surveillance data collected among key populations (KPs) across 20 cities in Pakistan between 2005-2011 was used for modeling. Empirical estimates of HIV prevalence of each KP in each city were used to fit the model to estimate prevalence and incidence over time.
resultsHIV incidence among PWIDs in Pakistan reached its peak in 2011, estimated at 45.3 per 1000 person-years. Incidence was projected to continue to rise from 18.9 in 2015 to 24.3 in 2020 among H/MSWs and from 3.2 in 2015 to 6.3 in 2020 among FSWs. The number of people living with HIV in Pakistan was estimated to steadily increase through at least 2020. HIV incidence peak among PWIDs ranged from 16.2 in 1997 in Quetta to 71.0 in 2010 in Faisalabad (per 1000 person-years). Incidence among H/MSWs may continue to rise through 2020 in all the cities, except in Larkana where it peaked in the early 2000s. In 2015, model estimated incidence among FSWs was 8.1 in Karachi, 6.6 in Larkana, 2.0 in Sukkur and 1.2 in Lahore (per 1000 person-years).
conclusionsThere exists significant geographical heterogeneity in patterns and trends of HIV sub-epidemics in Pakistan. Focused interventions and service delivery approaches, different by KP and city, are recommended.
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