Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29769282›Full record

ArticleGenetics2018

Inferring the Probability of the Derived

Peter D Keightley, Benjamin C Jackson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genetics, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 84 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
84citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

84 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  15. Polarising SNPs Without Outgroup.Molecular ecology resources · 2026
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  19. Whole-genome duplication increases genetic diversity and load in outcrossingProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  20. Article

24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Peter D KeightleyInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, United Kingdom peter.keightley@ed.ac.uk.
Benjamin C JacksonInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, United Kingdom.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

It is known that the allele ancestral to the variation at a polymorphic site cannot be assigned with certainty, and that the most frequently used method to assign the ancestral state-maximum parsimony-is prone to misinference. Estimates of counts of sites that have a certain number of copies of the derived allele in a sample (the unfolded site frequency spectrum, uSFS) made by parsimony are therefore also biased. We previously developed a maximum likelihood method to estimate the uSFS for a focal species using information from two outgroups while assuming simple models of nucleotide substitution. Here, we extend this approach to allow multiple outgroups (implemented for three outgroups), potentially any phylogenetic tree topology, and more complex models of nucleotide substitution. We find, however, that two outgroups and the Kimura two-parameter model are adequate for uSFS inference in most cases. We show that using parsimony to infer the ancestral state at a specific site seriously breaks down in two situations. The first is where the outgroups provide no information about the ancestral state of variation in the focal species. In this case, nucleotide variation will be underestimated if such sites are excluded. The second is where the minor allele in the focal species agrees with the allelic state of the outgroups. In this situation, parsimony tends to overestimate the probability of the major allele being derived, because it fails to account for the fact that sites with a high frequency of the derived allele tend to be rare. We present a method that corrects this deficiency and is capable of providing nearly unbiased estimates of ancestral state probabilities on a site-by-site basis and the uSFS.

Indexed as

Evolution, MolecularPoint MutationAnimalsDrosophilaGene FrequencyHumansLikelihood FunctionsModels, GeneticPhylogenyancestral allelederived allelemisinferencenucleotide polymorphismparsimonyunfolded site frequency spectrum

Identifiers

PMID29769282
PMCPMC6028244

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.