Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29763472›Full record

ArticlePloS one2018

P values in display items are ubiquitous and almost invariably significant: A survey of top science journals.

Ioana Alina Cristea, John P A Ioannidis

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Prioritisation and design of clinical trials.European journal of epidemiology · 2021
    Article
  6. The reporting ofPeerJ · 2021
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Lowering the threshold of statistical significance in gastroenterology trials.Indian journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Indian Society of Gastroenterology · 2020
    Article
  10. The magnitude of small-study effects in theBMJ evidence-based medicine · 2020
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Frontiers in oncology · 2019
    Article
  13. PeerJ · 2019
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Ioana Alina CristeaMeta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.
John P A IoannidisMeta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0003-3118-6859

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

P values represent a widely used, but pervasively misunderstood and fiercely contested method of scientific inference. Display items, such as figures and tables, often containing the main results, are an important source of P values. We conducted a survey comparing the overall use of P values and the occurrence of significant P values in display items of a sample of articles in the three top multidisciplinary journals (Nature, Science, PNAS) in 2017 and, respectively, in 1997. We also examined the reporting of multiplicity corrections and its potential influence on the proportion of statistically significant P values. Our findings demonstrated substantial and growing reliance on P values in display items, with increases of 2.5 to 14.5 times in 2017 compared to 1997. The overwhelming majority of P values (94%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 92% to 96%) were statistically significant. Methods to adjust for multiplicity were almost non-existent in 1997, but reported in many articles relying on P values in 2017 (Nature 68%, Science 48%, PNAS 38%). In their absence, almost all reported P values were statistically significant (98%, 95% CI 96% to 99%). Conversely, when any multiplicity corrections were described, 88% (95% CI 82% to 93%) of reported P values were statistically significant. Use of Bayesian methods was scant (2.5%) and rarely (0.7%) articles relied exclusively on Bayesian statistics. Overall, wider appreciation of the need for multiplicity corrections is a welcome evolution, but the rapid growth of reliance on P values and implausibly high rates of reported statistical significance are worrisome.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremBiometryPublishingScienceSurveys and Questionnaires

Identifiers

PMID29763472
PMCPMC5953482

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.