ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2018
Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 57 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The neglected model validation of antimicrobial resistance transmission models - a systematic review.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2025Pooled it
- Mathematical models of drug-resistant tuberculosis lack bacterial heterogeneity: A systematic review.PLoS pathogens · 2024Pooled it
- Optimizing Latent Tuberculosis Treatment Strategies Among Immigrants From High-Burden Settings.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Uncovering Household Tuberculosis Infection Testing and Care Patterns Using a Novel Bioinformatics Linkage Strategy.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Outcomes in the United States: A Bayesian Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis notification trends and treatment outcomes in Bangladesh: findings from a National TB Program data, 2019-2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of preventive treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection among key community-level populations.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Identifying Gaps in Tuberculosis Preventive Care for Non-U.S.-born Persons at Community Health Clinics in the United States.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Policy Impediments to Tuberculosis Elimination: Consequences of an Absent Medicare National Coverage Determination for Tuberculosis Prevention.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2025Article
- ThemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- Pediatric Tuberculosis Infection Care Facilitators and Barriers: A Qualitative Study.Pediatrics · 2024Article
- Scaling Up Latent Tuberculosis Infection Testing and Treatment for Non-US Born Patients in a Federally Qualified Community Health Center.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2023Article
- Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Cross-municipality migration and spread of tuberculosis in South Africa.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Using the Food and Drug Administration´s Sentinel System for surveillance of TB infection.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2022Article
- Evaluation of the Latent Tuberculosis Care Cascade Among Public Health Clinics in the United States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Population-based sequencing ofeLife · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We estimated long-term tuberculosis (TB) trends in the US population and assessed prospects for TB elimination. We used a detailed simulation model allowing for changes in TB transmission, immigration, and other TB risk determinants. Five hypothetical scenarios were evaluated from 2017 to 2100: 1) maintain current TB prevention and treatment activities (base case); 2) provision of latent TB infection testing and treatment for new legal immigrants; 3) increased uptake of latent TB infection screening and treatment among high-risk populations, including a 3-month isoniazid-rifapentine regimen; 4) improved TB case detection; and 5) improved TB treatment quality. Under the base case, we estimate that by 2050, TB incidence will decline to 14 cases per million, a 52% (95% posterior interval (PI): 35, 67) reduction from 2016, and 82% (95% posterior interval: 78, 86) of incident TB will be among persons born outside of the United States. Intensified TB control could reduce incidence by 77% (95% posterior interval: 66, 85) by 2050. We predict TB may be eliminated in US-born but not non-US-born persons by 2100. Results were sensitive to numbers of people entering the United States with latent or active TB, and were robust to alternative interpretations of epidemiologic evidence. TB elimination in the United States remains a distant goal; however, strengthening TB prevention and treatment could produce important health benefits.
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