Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29743125›Full record

ArticleEpidemiology and infection2018

Significant spike in excess mortality in England in winter 2014/15 - influenza the likely culprit.

R G Pebody, H K Green, F Warburton, M Sinnathamby, J Ellis, K Mølbak, J Nielsen, S de Lusignan, N Andrews

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. All-cause excess mortality observed by age group and regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2020
    Article
  14. Influenza vaccines: the potential benefits of cell-culture isolation and manufacturing.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2020
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

R G PebodyPublic Health England,London,UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9069-2885
H K GreenPublic Health England,London,UK.
F WarburtonPublic Health England,London,UK.
M SinnathambyPublic Health England,London,UK.
J EllisPublic Health England,London,UK.
K MølbakStatens Serum Institut,Copenhagen,Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-3100-4990
J NielsenStatens Serum Institut,Copenhagen,Denmark.
S de LusignanUniversity of Surrey,Guildford,UK.
N AndrewsPublic Health England,London,UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Significant increases in excess all-cause mortality, particularly in the elderly, were observed during the winter of 2014/15 in England. With influenza A(H3N2) the dominant circulating influenza A subtype, this paper determines the contribution of influenza to this excess controlling for weather. A standardised multivariable Poisson regression model was employed with weekly all-cause deaths the dependent variable for the period 2008-2015. Adjusting for extreme temperature, a total of 26 542 (95% CI 25 301-27 804) deaths in 65+ and 1942 (95% CI 1834-2052) in 15-64-year-olds were associated with influenza from week 40, 2014 to week 20, 2015. This is compatible with the circulation of influenza A(H3N2). It is the largest estimated number of influenza-related deaths in England since prior to 2008/09. The findings highlight the potential health impact of influenza and the important role of the annual influenza vaccination programme that is required to protect the population including the elderly, who are vulnerable to a severe outcome.

Indexed as

Cause of DeathAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEnglandFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedInfluenza Avaccination (immunization)

Identifiers

PMID29743125
PMCPMC9134289

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.