SynthesisEuropean journal of epidemiology2018
External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study.
Synthesis in European journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
67 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Discriminative performance of externally validated dementia risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Pooled it
- A critical review and classification of dementia risk assessment tools to inform dementia risk reduction.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Pooled it
- Quantifying dementia prevention potential in the FINGER randomized controlled trial using the LIBRA prevention index.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2021Trial
- A Flexible-Horizon Clinical Decision Support Model for Dementia Early Detection and Risk Prediction in Secondary Care: A Responsible AI Approach.Journal of medical systems · 2026Article
- Imaging-genetics-based dementia risk prediction using deep survival neural networks in the Rotterdam Study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Predicting cognitive decline: Comparative analysis of ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, LIBRA2, UKBDRS and Lancet based dementia risk scores in the HUNT study.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026Article
- The CAIDE dementia risk score indicates elevated cognitive risk in late adulthood: a structural and functional neuroimaging study.GeroScience · 2026Article
- External validation of dementia risk prediction models in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort: a UK-based cohort study.NPJ dementia · 2026Article
- Prediction of Episodic Memory With Multiomics Scores.Biological psychiatry global open science · 2026Article
- Construction of a classification model for dementia among Brazilian adults aged 50 and over.Frontiers in aging neuroscience · 2026Article
- Dementia risk prediction: A comparative analysis of the ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, and LIBRA2 indices in the HUNT study.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Article
- Imaging-genetics-based dementia risk prediction using deep survival neural networks in the Rotterdam Study.Research square · 2025Article
- A point-based cognitive impairment scoring system for southeast Asian adults.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Article
- Machine learning to predict dementia for American Indian and Alaska native peoples: a retrospective cohort study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Predicting low density lipoprotein cholesterol target attainment using machine learning in patients with coronary artery disease receiving moderate-dose statin therapy.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Against reflexive recalibration: towards a causal framework for addressing miscalibration.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2025Article
- Enhancing dementia prediction: A 19-year validation of the CAIDE risk score with insulin resistance and APOE ε4 integration in a population-based cohort.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Article
- Article
- Individualized, cross-validated prediction of future dementia using cognitive assessments in people with mild cognitive symptoms.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
- External validation of dementia prediction models in Black or African American and White older adults: A longitudinal population-based study in the United States.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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8 authors.
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Abstract
To systematically review the literature for dementia prediction models for use in the general population and externally validate their performance in a head-to-head comparison. We selected four prediction models for validation: CAIDE, BDSI, ANU-ADRI and DRS. From the Rotterdam Study, 6667 non-demented individuals aged 55 years and older were assessed between 1997 and 2001. Subsequently, participants were followed for dementia until 1 January, 2015. For each individual, we computed the risk of dementia using the reported scores from each prediction model. We used the C-statistic and calibration plots to assess the performance of each model to predict 10-year risk of all-cause dementia. For comparisons, we also evaluated discriminative accuracy using only the age component of these risk scores for each model separately. During 75,581 person-years of follow-up, 867 participants developed dementia. C-statistics for 10-year dementia risk prediction were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53-0.58) for CAIDE, 0.78 (0.76-0.81) for BDSI, 0.75 (0.74-0.77) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for DRS. Calibration plots showed that predicted risks were too extreme with underestimation at low risk and overestimation at high risk. Importantly, in all models age alone already showed nearly identical discriminative accuracy as the full model (C-statistics: 0.55 (0.53-0.58) for CAIDE, 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for BDSI, 0.77 (0.75-0.79) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for DRS). In this study, we found high variability in discriminative ability for predicting dementia in an elderly, community-dwelling population. All models showed similar discriminative ability when compared to prediction based on age alone. These findings highlight the urgent need for updated or new models to predict dementia risk in the general population.
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