ArticleNature communications2018
Bayesian model selection for complex dynamic systems.
Article in Nature communications, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 67 citations in OpenAlex.
- Immune cells employ intermittent integrin-mediated traction forces for 3D migration.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Validation and Comparison of Non-stationary Cognitive Models: A Diffusion Model Application.Computational brain & behavior · 2025Article
- Neural superstatistics for Bayesian estimation of dynamic cognitive models.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Classification at the accuracy limit: facing the problem of data ambiguity.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Unravelling cell migration: defining movement from the cell surface.Cell adhesion & migration · 2022Review
- Bayesian data assimilation for estimating instantaneous reproduction numbers during epidemics: Applications to COVID-19.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Sleep as a random walk: a super-statistical analysis of EEG data across sleep stages.Communications biology · 2021Article
- Analysis of the early response to spinal cord injury identified a key role for mTORC1 signaling in the activation of neural stem progenitor cells.NPJ Regenerative medicine · 2021Article
- Integrating Quantitative Assays with Biologically Based Mathematical Modeling for Predictive Oncology.iScience · 2020Review
- Integrated in silico and 3D in vitro model of macrophage migration in response to physical and chemical factors in the tumor microenvironment.Integrative biology : quantitative biosciences from nano to macro · 2020Article
- On the efficiency of chemotactic pursuit - Comparing blind search with temporal and spatial gradient sensing.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- On the Use of Entropy to Improve Model Selection Criteria.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2019Article
- Forecasting extreme atmospheric events with a recurrence-interval-analysis-based autoregressive conditional duration model.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Integration ofFrontiers in physiology · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Time series generated by complex systems like financial markets and the earth's atmosphere often represent superstatistical random walks: on short time scales, the data follow a simple low-level model, but the model parameters are not constant and can fluctuate on longer time scales according to a high-level model. While the low-level model is often dictated by the type of the data, the high-level model, which describes how the parameters change, is unknown in most cases. Here we present a computationally efficient method to infer the time course of the parameter variations from time-series with short-range correlations. Importantly, this method evaluates the model evidence to objectively select between competing high-level models. We apply this method to detect anomalous price movements in financial markets, characterize cancer cell invasiveness, identify historical policies relevant for working safety in coal mines, and compare different climate change scenarios to forecast global warming.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.