ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2018
Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Pooled it
- A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Temperature-Related Mortality and Morbidity in Japan.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Pooled it
- Temporal trends in late-pregnancy exposure to ambient temperature and risk of preterm birth in Japan, a nationwide study from 1979 to 2023.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Heatwaves, Cold Spells, and Renal Disease Mortality in Japan: Vulnerable Populations and Temporal Trends (1979-2019).Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Article
- Assessment of temperature on mortality burden and economic impacts in a basin-located mega-city.PloS one · 2026Article
- Escalated heatwave mortality risk in sub-Saharan Africa under recent warming trend.Science advances · 2025Article
- Intervention co-design to reduce the impact of heat exposure on pregnant and postpartum women and newborns in Burkina Faso.Health policy and planning · 2025Article
- The temporal shift of temperature-related injury incidence risk and its driving factors in China: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2006 to 2021.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Toward a Cohort Perspective of Climate Epidemiology: The Case of Examining Intergenerational Inequalities in Susceptibility to Non-Optimal Temperatures in Japan.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
- Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health.Nature medicine · 2024Article
- Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2024Article
- Associations between short-term exposure to ambient temperature and renal disease mortality in Japan during 1979-2019: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2024Article
- The temporal change of heat exposure and adaptation capacity in Chinese adults from 1994 to 2023.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Association of Ambient Temperature and Absolute Humidity with the Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Japan.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Review
- Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2023Article
- The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Increasing global temperatures threaten gains in maternal and newborn health in Africa: A review of impacts and an adaptation framework.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2023Review
- Analysis of time-dependent effects of ambient temperatures on health by vulnerable groups in Korea in 1999-2018.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPrevious studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes.
objectiveOur objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables.
methodsWe first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors.
resultsMMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated (
conclusionsPopulation susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.
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