Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29720194›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental health : a global access science source2018

Increase in fertility following coal and oil power plant retirements in California.

Joan A Casey, Alison Gemmill, Deborah Karasek, Elizabeth L Ogburn, Dana E Goin, Rachel Morello-Frosch

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental health : a global access science source, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Racialized economic segregation in relation to fecundability in a preconception cohort study.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Joan A CaseyDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, 13B University Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94729, USA. joanacasey@berkeley.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-9809-4695
Alison GemmillProgram in Public Health, Department of Family, Population and Preventive Medicine, Stony Brook University, HSC, Level 3, Room 071, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-8338, USA.
Deborah KarasekPreterm Birth Initiative, University of California, San Francisco, CA, 550 16th Street, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
Elizabeth L OgburnDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Room E3620, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Dana E GoinDivision of Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, 50 University Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94729, USA.
Rachel Morello-FroschDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy & Management and the University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.

Funding

Transdisciplinary Approach to Rapidly Identify Reproductive Toxics in Pregnant Women and NewbornsR01ES027051 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Dimitri Abrahamsson, Tracey J. Woodruff · 2016 to 2026
$6.6M
The UCSF Pregnancy Exposures to Environmental Chemicals (PEEC) Children's CenterP01ES022841 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MORELLO-FROSCH, RACHEL ADELE · 2013 to 2018
$3.9M
The impact of unconventional natural gas development on maternal, perinatal, and childhood health: An electronic health record approachK99ES027023 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI CASEY, JOAN A · 2017 to 2018
$203k
NIEHS NIH HHS K99 ES027023NIEHS NIH HHS K99ES027023NIEHS NIH HHS P01 ES022841NIEHS NIH HHS P01ES022841, R01ES027051NIEHS NIH HHS R01 ES027051U.S. Environmental Protection Agency RD-83543301
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFew studies have explored the relationship between air pollution and fertility. We used a natural experiment in California when coal and oil power plants retired to estimate associations with nearby fertility rates.

methodsWe used a difference-in-differences negative binomial model on the incident rate ratio scale to analyze the change in annual fertility rates among California mothers living within 0-5 km and 5-10 km of 8 retired power plants between 2001 and 2011. The difference-in-differences method isolates the portion of the pre- versus post-retirement contrast in the 0-5 km and 5-10 km bins, respectively, that is due to retirement rather than secular trends. We controlled for secular trends with mothers living 10-20 km away. Adjusted models included fixed effects for power plant, proportion Hispanic, Black, high school educated, and aged > 30 years mothers, and neighborhood poverty and educational attainment.

resultsAnalyses included 58,909 live births. In adjusted models, we estimated that after power plant retirement annual fertility rates per 1000 women aged 15-44 years increased by 8 births within 5 km and 2 births within 5-10 km of power plants, corresponding to incident rate ratios of 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1-1.4) and 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0-1.2), respectively. We implemented a negative exposure control by randomly selecting power plants that did not retire and repeating our analysis with those locations using the retirement dates from original 8 power plants. There was no association, suggesting that statewide temporal trends may not account for results.

conclusionsFertility rates among nearby populations appeared to increase after coal and oil power plant retirements. Our study design limited the possibility that our findings resulted from temporal trends or changes in population composition. These results require confirmation in other populations, given known methodological limitations of ecologic study designs.

Indexed as

Birth RateAdolescentAdultAir PollutionCaliforniaCoalFemaleFertilityHumansPetroleumPower PlantsYoung AdultCoalPetroleumBirth certificatesCaliforniaCoalEnvironmental epidemiologyFertilityLive birthNatural experimentPower plants

Identifiers

PMID29720194
PMCPMC5932773

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.