ArticleEpidemiology and infection2018
Age bias in survey sampling and implications for estimating HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men: insights from mathematical modelling.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- HIV testing and engagement with the HIV treatment cascade among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The lancet. HIV · 2019Pooled it
- Article
- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa: collation and synthesis of survey data, 2010-23.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- The social and sexual lives of Black sexual minority men 30 years of age and older in South Africa.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Estimating the contribution of key populations towards HIV transmission in South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- HIV testing, care and viral suppression among men who have sex with men and transgender individuals in Johannesburg, South Africa.PloS one · 2020Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is widely used to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men (MSM). Mathematical models that are calibrated to these data may be compromised if they fail to account for selection biases in RDS surveys. To quantify the potential extent of this bias, an agent-based model of HIV in South Africa was calibrated to HIV prevalence and sexual behaviour data from South African studies of MSM, first reweighting the modelled MSM population to match the younger age profile of the RDS surveys (age-adjusted analysis) and then without reweighting (unadjusted analysis). The model estimated a median HIV prevalence in South African MSM in 2015 of 34.6% (inter-quartile range (IQR): 31.4-37.2%) in the age-adjusted analysis, compared with 26.1% (IQR: 24.1-28.4%) in the unadjusted analysis. The median lifetime risk of acquiring HIV in exclusively homosexual men was 88% (IQR: 82-92%) in the age-adjusted analysis, compared with 76% (IQR: 64-85%) in the unadjusted analysis. These results suggest that RDS studies may under-estimate the exceptionally high HIV prevalence rates in South African MSM because of over-sampling of younger MSM. Mathematical models that are calibrated to these data need to control for likely over-sampling of younger MSM.
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