Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29703919›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2018

Lifestyle index for mortality prediction using multiple ageing cohorts in the USA, UK and Europe.

Jing Liao, Graciela Muniz-Terrera, Shaun Scholes, Yuantao Hao, Yu-Ming Chen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The Utility of Measures of Physical Behavior, Function, and Fitness as Predictors of Mortality.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Innovations, quality & outcomes · 2026
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  7. Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Mortality Prediction in a Prospective Cohort of Older Adults.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jing LiaoDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, No.74 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou, 510080, P.R. China.
Graciela Muniz-TerreraBiostatistics and Epidemiology, Centre for Dementia Prevention, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Shaun ScholesUCL Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Yuantao HaoDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, No.74 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou, 510080, P.R. China.
Yu-Ming ChenDepartment of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, No.74 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou, 510080, P.R. China. chenyum@mail.sysu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0003-1658-5528

Funding

Understanding and Improving Healthcare Decision-Making and Outcomes for People Living with Alzheimer's Disease and Related DementiasP01AG005842 · NIA · NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH · PI KOSALI ILAYPERUMA SIMON · 1986 to 2026
$56.5M
Integrting Information About Aging SurveysR01AG030153 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI Sara Adar, Alden L. Gross · 2007 to 2026
$41.7M
Mega Meta Data Set of the Health and Retirement Surveys Around the WorldRC2AG036619 · NIA · RAND CORPORATION · PI KAPTEYN, ARIE · 2009 to 2010
$2.0M
DEVELOPING AN ISRAELI VERSION OF THE HRS/SHARE PROJECTR21AG025169 · NIA · HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM · PI LITWIN, HOWARD · 2004 to 2006
$297k
Archiving & Creating User Friendly Data: the Longitudinal Aging Survey in IndiaR03AG043052 · NIA · RAND CORPORATION · PI LEE, JINKOOK · 2012 to 2012
$95k
NIA NIH HHS HHSN271201300071CNIA NIH HHS P01 AG005842NIA NIH HHS R01 AG030153NIA NIH HHS R03 AG043052NIA NIH HHS R21 AG025169NIA NIH HHS RC2 AG036619
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Current mortality prediction indexes are mainly based on functional morbidity and comorbidity, with limited information for risk prevention. This study aimed to develop and validate a modifiable lifestyle-based mortality predication index for older adults. Data from 51,688 participants (56% women) aged ≥50 years in 2002 Health and Retirement Study, 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and 2004 Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used to estimate coefficients of the index with cohort-stratified Cox regression. Models were validated across studies and compared to the Lee index (having comorbid and morbidity predictors). Over an average of 11-year follow-up, 10,240 participants died. The lifestyle index includes smoking, drinking, exercising, sleep quality, BMI, sex and age; showing adequate model performance in internal validation (C-statistic 0.79; D-statistic 1.94; calibration slope 1.13) and in all combinations of internal-external cross-validation. It outperformed Lee index (e.g. differences in C-statistic = 0.01, D-statistic = 0.17, P < 0.001) consistently across health status. The lifestyle index stratified participants into varying mortality risk groups, with those in the top quintile having 13.5% excess absolute mortality risk over 10 years than those in the bottom 50th centile. Our lifestyle index with easy-assessable behavioural factors and improved generalizability may maximize its usability for personalized risk management.

Indexed as

AgingEpidemiologic MethodsLife StyleMortalityEuropeHumansLongitudinal StudiesPrognosisSurvival AnalysisUnited KingdomUnited States

Identifiers

PMID29703919
PMCPMC5923240

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.